Velominati Super Prestige

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The Velominati Super Prestige is a season-long competition wherein readers will be submitting their predictions for the top five finishers of each qualifying race.  In order to qualify, your picks via the VSP Picks form above the posts section of the VSP Event article pertaining to the race in question by the time the countdown clock goes to zero at midnight on the day of the race start. These articles are clearly marked and are generally posted at least 72 hours in advance of each event. The current leader of the competition has the honor of posting on the site bearing the VSP Leader’s badge; winners of select races (the monuments and Grand Tours) similarly gain the honor of posting with a dedicated badge for the remainder of the year. Prizes may be given for key events; these prizes will be announced on the associated VSP Event. Points will be tallied as the season progresses and the winner will be announced after Paris-Tours. Prizes to be determined.

Scoring (One-Day Races)

Readers who wish to enter shall enter their predictions for the top five placings of each race by the time the countdown clock goes to zero at midnight PDT on the day of the race. Regular Points Points will be scored in reverse order of finishing order: 7 points for first place, 5 points for second, 4 for third, 3 for fourth, and 2 for fifth.  Readers will also earn 1 bonus point for every other rider named in the top five, regardless of the rider’s placing, but riders are not scored twice. Tie Breaking In the event of a tie, the first reader to submit their predictions will be named the winner.

Scoring (Grand Tours)

Readers who wish to enter shall enter their predictions for the top five placings on General Classification of each Grand Tour by the time the countdown clock goes to zero at midnight PDT on the day of the first stage or prologue. Points Points will be scored as follows based on the final G.C of the race: 20 points for first place, 15 for second, 10 for third, 7 for fourth, and 5 for fifth; plus 3 points per rider in the top five regardless of the rider’s placing, but riders are not scored twice. Changing of the Picks* Contestants are allowed to make line up changes on one of the rest days of the Grand Tours but not both. These changes will come with a point penalty.  You will be allotted one (1) rest day to make swaps in grand tours; you may pick either the first or second rest day. The penalties for swapping will be lower for the first rest day than the second. This will allow you to swap out a rider(s) who gets caught in some first week nervousness  with a 5 point penalty for each swap. Or make some go for broke/doomed to fail break-away swap on the second rest day for a 10 point penalty for each swap. That’s it. You make one swap or five on either rest day for the corresponding 5 or 10 point penalty per swap. Additionally, if one of your riders crashes out, DNF’s, or DNS’s, you may swap them out on a rest day with corresponding penalties if you haven’t already used up your one rest day swap. Tie Breaking In the event of a tie, the first reader to submit their predictions will be named the winner. Minor Stages We will be posting VSP’s for minor stages as well. Scoring is similar to one-day racing, except no bonus points are in play for getting the rider in the wrong placing.

Scoring (Minor Stage Races)

Readers who wish to enter shall enter their predictions for the top five placings on General Classification of each Minor Stage Race (less than three weeks) by the time the countdown clock goes to zero at midnight PDT on the day of the first stage or prologue. Regular Points Points will be scored in reverse order of finishing order: 10 points for first place, 8 for second, 7 for third, 5 for fourth, and 3 for fifth; plus two bonus points per rider in the top five regardless of the rider’s placing, but riders are not scored twice. Tie Breaking In the event of a tie, the first reader to submit their predictions will be named the winner.

Posting Badges

The following badges will be worn by current leaders of the competition and sub-competitions:

Overall Super Prestige Leader:
Milano Sanremo:
VVomen’s Ronde van Vlaanderen:
Men’s Ronde van Vlaanderen:
Paris-Roubaix:
Leige-Bastogne-Liege:
Giro d’Italia Leader:
Giro Rosa Leader:
Tour de France Leader:
Vuelta a Espana Leader:
Giro di Lombardia:
Overal Super Prestige Lanterne Rouge:

2016 Velominati Super Prestige Schedule

Les Hommes

Start

End

Event

Race Website
18.03.2017 18.03.2017 Milano-Sanremo www.milanosanremo.it
26.03.2017 26.03.2017 Gent-Wevelgem in Flanders Fields www.gent-wevelgem.be
02.04.2017 02.04.2017 Ronde van Vlaanderen – Tour des Flandres www.flandersclassics.be
09.04.2017 09.04.2017 Paris-Roubaix www.letour.fr
16.04.2017 16.04.2017 Amstel Gold Race www.amstelgoldrace.nl
19.04.2017 19.04.2017 La Flèche Wallonne www.letour.fr
23.04.2017 23.04.2017 Liège-Bastogne-Liège www.letour.fr
05.05.2017 28.05.2017 Giro d’Italia www.giroditalia.it
04.06.2017 11.06.2017 Critérium du Dauphiné www.letour.fr
10.06.2017 18.06.2017 Tour de Suisse www.tds.ch
01.07.2017 23.07.2017 Tour de France www.letour.fr
29.07.2017 29.07.2017 Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian www.klasikoa.net
19.08.2017 10.09.2017 La Vuelta ciclista a España lavuelta.com
08.09.2017 08.09.2017 Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec www.gpcqm.ca
10.09.2017 10.09.2017 Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal www.gpcqm.ca
20.09.2017 20.09.2017 Mens World Championship Time Trial
24.09.2017 24.09.2017 Mens World Championship Road Race
07.10.2017 07.10.2017 Il Lombardia www.illombardia.it

La Femmes

Start

End

Event

Race Website
26.03.2017 26.03.2017 Gent-Wevelgem In Flanders Fields www.gent-wevelgem.be
02.04.2017 02.04.2017 Ronde van Vlaanderen / Tour des Flandres www.flandersclassics.be
16.04.2017 16.04.2017 Amstel Gold Race info@amstelgoldrace.nl
19.04.2017 19.04.2017 La Flèche Wallonne Féminine www.letour.fr
23.04.2017 23.04.2017 Liège-Bastogne-Liège Femmes www.letour.fr  et www.pesantliege.be
11.05.2017 14.05.2017 Amgen Breakaway from Heart Disease Women’s Race empowered with SRAM amgentourofcalifornia.com
30.06.2017 09.07.2017 Giro d’Italia Internazionale Femminile
20.07.2017 20.07.2017 La Course by Le Tour de France www.letour.fr
29.07.2017 29.07.2017 Prudential RideLondon Classique www.ridelondon.co.uk/events/classique
17.08.2017 20.08.2017 Ladies Tour of Norway www.ladiestour.no
26.08.2017 26.08.2017 GP de Plouay – Lorient Agglomération www.grandprix-plouay.com
29.08.2017 03.09.2017 Boels Rental Ladies Tour www.hollandladiestour.nl
10.09.2017 10.09.2017 Madrid Challenge by la Vuelta lavuelta.com/Madridchallenge
19.09.2017 19.09.2017 Womens World Championship Time Trial
23.09.2017 23.09.2017 Womens World Championship Road Race

Standings

[vsp_gc year=”2017″/]

Past Results

[vsp_gc year=”2016″/]

 

[vsp_gc year=”2015″/]

 

[vsp_gc year=”2014″/]

 

[vsp_gc year=”2013″/]

 

[vsp_gc year=”2012″/]

 

[vsp_gc year=”2011″/]

2010 VSP G.C.

1. Andy 56 points
2. Geoff 53 points
3. Steampunk: 51 points
4. Frank 48 points
5. Gianni 47 points
6. Marcus: 43 points
7. Jarvis 42 points
8. Hawkeye 40 points
9. Rob 38 points
10. Brett 37 point
…
11. Robert Marques: 36 point
12. Joe 35 point
13. Marko 32 points
14. Scott 26 points
15. Roadslave 25 points
16. Ben 21 points
17. Ken 17 points
18. Pont 15 points
19. Nathan Edwards: 11 points
20. Souleur: 10 points
21. Crossy: 10 points
22. KitCarson 10 points
23. Mr Haven 7 points
24. Cyclops 6 points
25. Daniel 5 points
26. Sgt 3 points
27. David: 2 points
29. Dan O 2 points
30. Joshua 2 points
31. David 1 points
32. James 0 points
33. Jim 0 points
34. Ben: 0 points
35. Dale: 0 points
36. Houdini 0 points

*The Changing of the Picks rules are designed to promote fair play and keep the competition fun and open throughout the three-week race.  Abuse of these rules will be managed through the “Piti Principle”: if we we feel you are attempting to exploit loopholes or otherwise take advantage of the Changing of the Picks rules, we will penalize you by deducting points from your total score. Much like the UCI doping suspensions, the amount of points deducted will be based on how egregious the abuse was.

View Comments

  • Frank... where do you want the graphs ?

    I've done some analysis of the main races - not all. Paris-Nice, Ronde, Roubaix, Liege and Giro with TdS to come.

    I concentrated on the VSP picks compared to race results rather than the actual VSP competition - honestly I don't know how anybody scores any points after looking at it. Two objectives:

    1. Whether being in the Velominati VSP or Top 10 is an indicator of actual results.

    2. Is there any correlation between the strength of picks and results.

    I have defined correct results as simply being Top 5 (VSP) or Top 10, not exact placing.

     

    Method

    I calculated the weighted votes, so 5 points for each first place pick, four for second and so on to produce a Velominati VSP and a Velominati Top 10.

    Weighted votes were also calculated for riders finishing in the Top 10 of actual placings, where they were not already in the Velominati selection.

    I also calculated the percentage of votes for each rider in the VSP and Top 10, as a share of the total, to indicate and compare the strength of preference e.g. for Paris Nice the VSP total weighted votes was 1183, of which Wiggins had 378 or 32%. Whereas for Liege the total weighted votes was 1220, of which Gilbert had 527, or 43.2%.

     

    Data

    I won't put all the numbers here but for interest the collective Velominati VSPs were:

    Paris Nice: Wiggins (32%), Valverde (24.3%), T Martin (22.5%), Leipheimer (11.3%), F Schleck (9.9%)

    Ronde: Boonen (34.4%), Cancellara (33.3%), Sagan (16.5%), Chavanel (10%), Gilbert (5.8)

    Roubaix: Boonen (38.3%), Pozzato (23%), Ballan (15.8%), Hushovd (15.6%), Flecha (7.3%)

    Liege: Gilbert (43.2%), J-Rod (26.6%), F Schleck (10.4%), Valverde (10.1%), Cunego (9.8%)

    Giro: Scarponi (32.2%), Basso (25.7%), Kreuziger (21.1%), J-Rod (12.1%), F Schleck (8.9%)

    TdS: Gesink (30.5%), Cunego (21.6%), Kreuziger (18.2%), Valverde (15.2%), Leipheimer (14.5%)

     

    Analysis

    Comparing the VSPs and Top10s to results was the basis of the analysis - the number of VSP picks actually in the Top 5, and likewise the number of Top 10 V picks in the actual Top 10.

    Actual placings in the Top 10 but not within the Velominati Top 10 were also analysed.

    This was done in two ways. First by adding the total percentages for the correct picks, and secondly by looking at the outright number correctly picked.

    This would show as a higher weight-based score if two very strong favourites were picked in the Velominati VSP and both placed Top 5, compared to a more evenly spread Velominati VSP selection but which resulted in the same number of more riders placing in the Top 5. The intention was not only to show how many VSP picks (and Top 10) were correct, but the extent to which they had been correctly picked (or conversely, the extent to which the VSP picks were wrong).

    For example Gilbert and Rodriguez between them attracted high weighted VSP vote for LBL and had only those two (not Schleck, Valverde and Cunego) been in the Top 5 results the score would have been 69.8% and an outright score of 2 (from 5). Whereas had Schleck, Valverde and Cunego placed in the Top 5 the outright score would be higher (3 from 5) but the weighted result would be only 30.2%, indicating a weaker favouritism and comparatively poor result.

    Or as an example from the other direction, the actual number of Velominati Top 10 picks who gained placing in the Top 10 at both Roubaix and Liege was 4, but the percentage allocated to them at Roubaix was 54.2% and Liege 13.4%, reflecting a weaker performance.

     

    Results

    This is where I need a table but the results were:

    Weighted % VSP: P-N 56.3%; Ronde 61%; Roubaix 61.4%; Liege 0%; Giro 70%. Average 49.8%.

    Weighted  % Top 10: P-N 49.9%; Ronde 56.5%; Roubaix 54.2%; Liege 13.4%; Giro 69%. Average 48.6%

    VSP Correct Picks: P-N 2; Ronde 2; Roubaix 3; Liege 0; Giro 3. Average 2.

    Top 10 Correct Picks: P-N 3; Ronde 5; Roubaix 4; Liege 4; Giro 5. Average 4.2.

    Finally I looked at the number of riders who actually placed in the Top 10, but were not in the Velominati Top 10 to see the amount of weighted picks they scored, in case it indicated a significant but not large amount of favouritism. it didn't.

    Non V10: P-N 1.5%; Ronde 2.7%; Roubaix .5%; Liege 4.8%; Giro 2.4%. Average 2.4%.

     

    Conclusions

    The Velominati collectively pick just two of the Top 5 in each competition to date, and around four of the top 10. Just under half the weighted votes cast are 'correct' in the sense that they go to a rider who places accordingly, if not exactly.

    The Giro was our best performance to date with 3 VSP and 5 Top 10, and around 70% of votes correct in both.

    Liege was an aberration with not a single VSP rider placing in the Top 5.

    In general you would have a better chance by avoiding riders who do not feature in the VSP top 5 or 10, although the problem is then which of the other riders to choose.

     

    Future Research

    Having observed this we may now see an illustration of the Hawthorne Effect (or Observer Effect if the scientists would prefer) by causing a modification in behaviour in future VSPs.

    it would be of interest to look at the behaviour of VSP participants in terms of the timeline of votes to determine whether there is a suggestive process caused by the open nature of the selection.

    In regard to results the votes of individual riders could be looked at over the events and the selection in individual ranks. For example riders like Frank Schleck and Damiano Cunego are consistently picked in or near the Top 5 by weight of votes but rarely in the top one or two placings.

    If anyone can award me a PhD or even a Masters I'd be happy to do more...

  • @KeepersWhen is Le Tour VSP opening?The only reason I ask is that I'm off on holiday next day and won't have internet access without looking for it. Alternatively is there anyway I can submit my picks now? Cheers

  • I hope we're not forgetting the Giro d'Italia Donne. I've just realised that the first stage is going to pass nearby my house. Definately won't be one of the more scenic moments of the cycling calendar. They'll be glad of the police escort as they'll be passing by a housing estate know locally as 'o terza mondo' 'the third world.'

  • O I am on hols from 28th any chance the Olympic Road Race picks can be put up a little early ;)

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