2,331 Replies to “Velominati Super Prestige”

1. Yip, did you just take that or is it from the library?

2. @frank
   +1. That’s the line that changed it from merely funny to inspired.

3. @snoov
   I have more photos of my bicycles than is healthy or reasonable. Probably both. That shot is from the day after Roubaix. If you look closely, three is Roubaix dust on the downtube. There’s a full set of these, naturally.

4. @frank
   Who cabled your bike Frank?There are few things there you could have done different.Your bike is fantastic,don’t get me wrong,but sometimes small touch can make a difference.

5. @frank
   Naturalment. It’s exactly what I expected.

   Damn Eurosport, they call themselves the cycling channel or the home of cycling but as soon as a bit of tennis comes along it’s on every channel and the cycling is cancelled. Can’t they just give us one channel? I’ve paid my money, might have to contact them to express my disappointment.

6. In case anyone is awake, the Dauphine is shakin up!
   Somehow Sky let Cuddles get away with George, Tejay, and Schar…
   Also Nibbles +2 unidentified liquids…

7. Scratch that. It’s coming back together now.

8. Frank… where do you want the graphs ?

   I’ve done some analysis of the main races – not all. Paris-Nice, Ronde, Roubaix, Liege and Giro with TdS to come.

   I concentrated on the VSP picks compared to race results rather than the actual VSP competition – honestly I don’t know how anybody scores any points after looking at it. Two objectives:

   1. Whether being in the Velominati VSP or Top 10 is an indicator of actual results.

   2. Is there any correlation between the strength of picks and results.

   I have defined correct results as simply being Top 5 (VSP) or Top 10, not exact placing.

    

   Method

   I calculated the weighted votes, so 5 points for each first place pick, four for second and so on to produce a Velominati VSP and a Velominati Top 10.

   Weighted votes were also calculated for riders finishing in the Top 10 of actual placings, where they were not already in the Velominati selection.

   I also calculated the percentage of votes for each rider in the VSP and Top 10, as a share of the total, to indicate and compare the strength of preference e.g. for Paris Nice the VSP total weighted votes was 1183, of which Wiggins had 378 or 32%. Whereas for Liege the total weighted votes was 1220, of which Gilbert had 527, or 43.2%.

    

   Data

   I won’t put all the numbers here but for interest the collective Velominati VSPs were:

   Paris Nice: Wiggins (32%), Valverde (24.3%), T Martin (22.5%), Leipheimer (11.3%), F Schleck (9.9%)

   Ronde: Boonen (34.4%), Cancellara (33.3%), Sagan (16.5%), Chavanel (10%), Gilbert (5.8)

   Roubaix: Boonen (38.3%), Pozzato (23%), Ballan (15.8%), Hushovd (15.6%), Flecha (7.3%)

   Liege: Gilbert (43.2%), J-Rod (26.6%), F Schleck (10.4%), Valverde (10.1%), Cunego (9.8%)

   Giro: Scarponi (32.2%), Basso (25.7%), Kreuziger (21.1%), J-Rod (12.1%), F Schleck (8.9%)

   TdS: Gesink (30.5%), Cunego (21.6%), Kreuziger (18.2%), Valverde (15.2%), Leipheimer (14.5%)

    

   Analysis

   Comparing the VSPs and Top10s to results was the basis of the analysis – the number of VSP picks actually in the Top 5, and likewise the number of Top 10 V picks in the actual Top 10.

   Actual placings in the Top 10 but not within the Velominati Top 10 were also analysed.

   This was done in two ways. First by adding the total percentages for the correct picks, and secondly by looking at the outright number correctly picked.

   This would show as a higher weight-based score if two very strong favourites were picked in the Velominati VSP and both placed Top 5, compared to a more evenly spread Velominati VSP selection but which resulted in the same number of more riders placing in the Top 5. The intention was not only to show how many VSP picks (and Top 10) were correct, but the extent to which they had been correctly picked (or conversely, the extent to which the VSP picks were wrong).

   For example Gilbert and Rodriguez between them attracted high weighted VSP vote for LBL and had only those two (not Schleck, Valverde and Cunego) been in the Top 5 results the score would have been 69.8% and an outright score of 2 (from 5). Whereas had Schleck, Valverde and Cunego placed in the Top 5 the outright score would be higher (3 from 5) but the weighted result would be only 30.2%, indicating a weaker favouritism and comparatively poor result.

   Or as an example from the other direction, the actual number of Velominati Top 10 picks who gained placing in the Top 10 at both Roubaix and Liege was 4, but the percentage allocated to them at Roubaix was 54.2% and Liege 13.4%, reflecting a weaker performance.

    

   Results

   This is where I need a table but the results were:

   Weighted % VSP: P-N 56.3%; Ronde 61%; Roubaix 61.4%; Liege 0%; Giro 70%. Average 49.8%.

   Weighted  % Top 10: P-N 49.9%; Ronde 56.5%; Roubaix 54.2%; Liege 13.4%; Giro 69%. Average 48.6%

   VSP Correct Picks: P-N 2; Ronde 2; Roubaix 3; Liege 0; Giro 3. Average 2.

   Top 10 Correct Picks: P-N 3; Ronde 5; Roubaix 4; Liege 4; Giro 5. Average 4.2.

   Finally I looked at the number of riders who actually placed in the Top 10, but were not in the Velominati Top 10 to see the amount of weighted picks they scored, in case it indicated a significant but not large amount of favouritism. it didn’t.

   Non V10: P-N 1.5%; Ronde 2.7%; Roubaix .5%; Liege 4.8%; Giro 2.4%. Average 2.4%.

    

   Conclusions

   The Velominati collectively pick just two of the Top 5 in each competition to date, and around four of the top 10. Just under half the weighted votes cast are ‘correct’ in the sense that they go to a rider who places accordingly, if not exactly.

   The Giro was our best performance to date with 3 VSP and 5 Top 10, and around 70% of votes correct in both.

   Liege was an aberration with not a single VSP rider placing in the Top 5.

   In general you would have a better chance by avoiding riders who do not feature in the VSP top 5 or 10, although the problem is then which of the other riders to choose.

    

   Future Research

   Having observed this we may now see an illustration of the Hawthorne Effect (or Observer Effect if the scientists would prefer) by causing a modification in behaviour in future VSPs.

   it would be of interest to look at the behaviour of VSP participants in terms of the timeline of votes to determine whether there is a suggestive process caused by the open nature of the selection.

   In regard to results the votes of individual riders could be looked at over the events and the selection in individual ranks. For example riders like Frank Schleck and Damiano Cunego are consistently picked in or near the Top 5 by weight of votes but rarely in the top one or two placings.

   If anyone can award me a PhD or even a Masters I’d be happy to do more…

9. @KeepersWhen is Le Tour VSP opening?The only reason I ask is that I’m off on holiday next day and won’t have internet access without looking for it. Alternatively is there anyway I can submit my picks now? Cheers

10. Starting to look at 2012 Tour de France start list here.

11. Here’s to a set of leggers about to hit the Tour. No mention of Johan Bruyneel.

    

12. @versio JB is not going to be in attendance. He’s sitting this one out in light of his alleged connection to the ongoing investigation by the USADA into Pharmy. He doesn’t run the team from the car in the road anyway, that’s done by sports directors Dirk Demol and Alain Gallopin.

    http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/06/news/bruyneel-to-sit-out-tour-de-france-over-usada-allegations_225383

13. @scaler911 Yes, of course. Supposed to hear the lampooning in “No mention of Johan Bruyneel.”

14. I hope we’re not forgetting the Giro d’Italia Donne. I’ve just realised that the first stage is going to pass nearby my house. Definately won’t be one of the more scenic moments of the cycling calendar. They’ll be glad of the police escort as they’ll be passing by a housing estate know locally as ‘o terza mondo’ ‘the third world.’

15. 350 entrants in the VSP!

16. O I am on hols from 28th any chance the Olympic Road Race picks can be put up a little early ;)

17. Are we running San Sebatian this year?  I believe it starts in less than twenty hours?

18. @Buck Rogers
    yeah I’m with you I’ve had enough track and field for a while. Time to get back to road cycling and the pro tour

    Should I just go ahead and put my picks here?

    Uran

    Chavenal

    Gerrans

    Van Den Broeck

    Casar

19. Also I’d love an Olympic avatar for winning the Men’s Road race. Maybe some rings or a gold medal.

    Well think about it anyway

20. @San Tonio

    @Buck Rogers
    yeah I’m with you I’ve had enough track and field for a while. Time to get back to road cycling and the pro tour

    Should I just go ahead and put my picks here?

    Uran

    Chavenal

    Gerrans

    Van Den Broeck

    Casar

    Veino for the win, Uran second, J Rod thrid, Van Avermaet fourth, and Chavenal fifth.

21. @Buck Rogers

    @San Tonio

    @Buck Rogers
    yeah I’m with you I’ve had enough track and field for a while. Time to get back to road cycling and the pro tour

    Should I just go ahead and put my picks here?

    Uran

    Chavenal

    Gerrans

    Van Den Broeck

    Casar

    Veino for the win, Uran second, J Rod thrid, Van Avermaet fourth, and Chavenal fifth.

    Actually, hopefully I am all wrong because if I am right, and there are no points, that would really suck!

22. @Buck Rogers

    Are we running San Sebatian this year?  I believe it starts in less than twenty hours?

    It’s on the schedule.  The Keepers must be drowning in Malteni and overlooked it.

23. @San Tonio

    Also I’d love an Olympic avatar for winning the Men’s Road race. Maybe some rings or a gold medal.

    Well think about it anyway

    A sit in a Gold chair maybe?

    

24. @Nate

    @Buck Rogers

    Are we running San Sebatian this year?  I believe it starts in less than twenty hours?

    It’s on the schedule.  The Keepers must be drowning in Malteni and overlooked it.

    The race is already well and truly underway.  Seems to have fallen off everyone’s radar, not even Cyclingnews is running a live ticker. I’m not fussed as totally out of the VSP running but always interested in the intro article @Frank.

25. @sthilzy

    @San Tonio

    Also I’d love an Olympic avatar for winning the Men’s Road race. Maybe some rings or a gold medal.

    Well think about it anyway

    A sit in a Gold chair maybe?

    

    I’ve been growing the sideburns out just in case

26. La Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian has commenced but the VSP has not.  What would Pedro say?

27. Holy shit, we’ve Delgado’d the whole bleeming race! With everything going on at V-Hq and heaps of riding we’ve been up to we completely overlooked this. Our sincerest apologies to those of you who are operating under the misconception that A) you would have gleaned enough points here to make a difference in your VSP, and B) that this race is really going to amount to a hill of beans this year after the last month and a half with the Tour and Olympics.

    I guess, to your point, Pedro is getting the last laugh…

28. @sthilzy

    @San Tonio

    Also I’d love an Olympic avatar for winning the Men’s Road race. Maybe some rings or a gold medal.

    Well think about it anyway

    A sit in a Gold chair maybe?

    

    Note the speedplays.

29. @Buck Rogers

    @Buck Rogers

    @San Tonio

    @Buck Rogers
    yeah I’m with you I’ve had enough track and field for a while. Time to get back to road cycling and the pro tour

    Should I just go ahead and put my picks here?

    Uran

    Chavenal

    Gerrans

    Van Den Broeck

    Casar

    Veino for the win, Uran second, J Rod thrid, Van Avermaet fourth, and Chavenal fifth.

    Actually, hopefully I am all wrong because if I am right, and there are no points, that would really suck!

    Hell, between the two of us I think we managed to pick one rider out of the top ten!  Glad the Keepers did pull a Delgado on this one!

30. Just in case the keepers have jobs or lives or need to go out on a ride or something, the Vuelta starts Saturday. Froome will flame out from exhaustion. Contador crashes out. A minor Spanish team takes Rojo.

    Now, let the flaming comments begin.

    And, back to work.

31. @erik

    Stand by, the VSP will be going up in a few hours. We completely missed the Classica yesterday as its usually on a Sunday and we suck. Those two things combined to make us suck even more. Suck++.

    Thanks for the reminder.

32. @frank  I’m just messing with you.  You are doing a hobby that just happens to involve those of us out there on the interwebs.  Everything about this is awesome.  We must all give thanks and offer some form of blood sacrifice for creating this little community for those of us not quite insane enough to be committed.

    Go Rural Housing!!!!! (Caja Rural)

33. @frank

    @erik

    Stand by, the VSP will be going up in a few hours. We completely missed the Classica yesterday as its usually on a Sunday and we suck. Those two things combined to make us suck even more. Suck++.

    Thanks for the reminder.

    Listen to LZ No Quarter and relax.

34. Tour of Britain (SEP 9) Team Sky Squad: Mark Cavendish, Bernhard Eisel, Jeremy Hunt, Christian Knees, Luke Rowe, Bradley Wiggins

35. When does the Montreal VSP go up?  Race is Sunday.

36. So, um, there’s this race in Canada tomorrow and I could use some points, maybe, hmmmm, okay?

37. @frank and keepers, VSP Montreal! Don’t forget like last year!

38. @King Clydesdale

    @frank and keepers, VSP Montreal! Don’t forget like last year!

    If you’re going to be a condescending prick, at least be right.

    http://www.velominati.com/velominati-super-prestige/velominati-super-prestige-2011-grand-prix-cycliste-de-montreal/

39. UCI ROAD WORLD CHAMPOINSHIPS Limburg 2012 starts on the 15th and finishes on the 23rd

40. A misunderstanding on my part — Sunday 23 September — Elite men (road) route.

    Sunday 16 September — Team time trial uci teams men.

    Wednesday 19 September — Elite men time trial.

41. So, I see Judith Arndt won the women’s TT.

    Not bad at 36 in your penultimate race before retirement.

42. Not sure if anyone played this trivia challenge last year but it will be starting up in about a month and it was a blast last year.

    http://www.cyclingrevealed.com/trivia/Contest/triviarules11.htm

    Some tough questions, some easy ones, each week with a limited amount of time to answer (so that you cannot cheat and look stuff up).  It is really up the Velominati’s alley.

43. @Buck Rogers It is really up the Velominati’s alley.

    ooooo missus

44. With the CX worlds stateside this year, any thoughts about starting the 2013 VSP competition early with said event?

45. Well the tour down under is on in 9 days….does that get an inclusion?  Maybe its time to clear the decks and get the Schedule up for 2013….I need some time to plan my attack on the rankings!!!

46. @CanuckChuck

    With the CX worlds stateside this year, any thoughts about starting the 2013 VSP competition early with said event?

    Too easy – just pick the top 5 Belgians…

47. @VeloVita

    True, but I’m hoping that home field advantage will favor my man J-Pow. (having raced on that course a few times already). Plus, a lot of those European CX racers aren’t used to traveling so far and across so many timezones for racing. This may put them at a disadvantage if they haven’t factored that into their race prep plan. Here’s hoping…

48. @TheKeepers Let’s get this bad boy cranked up for 2013. Omloop Het Niewsblad is less than two weeks away and I’m ready to defend my 2012 VSP Championship.

    I’ve had quite enough of this wintery gray off-season and I’m itching for the cycling season to start.

49. SaGAN!  The Dude is going to be a force to be reckoned with during the Classics.  I am betting that he podiums at least 3 this year and wins two.

    GOD, I hope that he is clean (pardon the cynicism, feeling a bit jaded lately)

50. @Buck Rogers

    GOD, I hope that he is clean (pardon the cynicism, feeling a bit jaded lately)

    You and me both!

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