The glow from the Giro is still visible, everything is still pink but I’m jumping ahead of all the Wilcocksons of the world with a bold Tour de France prognostication. And to do this I’ve borrowed Frank’s carbon ball, oft used for somewhat accurate predictions of future cycling events. This article was written weeks ago, at the start of the Giro but the frenzy of creative writing out of the front office has kept this buried. It’s now or never.
What can you say about Twiggo? I can say he is heading towards a win in the Tour de France this year.
I have raised issues with a rubbish haircut and cycling knee socks but these are superficial stylistic issues. Who am I to do that? I’m shiet. We need as many free thinkers as possible in cycling and if Bradley or Vaughters have different sideburns, excellent. Conformity is over-rated. Forget the socks, have you noticed his profile on the bike. He has the flattest back in the peloton and not by chance. I bet he and Sky are ticking every stinking little box to get this done.
He won Paris-Nice riding like a true professional, taking up Moser’s method of cooling down after each climbing stage by riding a stationary bike. He won Tour of Romandie like a seasoned veteran and won a field sprint for a stage win! He is winning these on his time trailing strength but not losing them by always riding at the front and climbing well enough. Yes, the Tour is different, the climbs are harder but he is a better climber than the Schlecks are time trialists. He did podium in last year’s Vuelta. He is experienced enough to not chase down every acceleration on a stiff climb, he just tempos it out, smoothing out the highs and lows. Bradley is one smart rider.
How does he stack up against Cadel? That is the question better informed people than myself would hope to answer correctly. Cadel’s mojo has been tainted so far this year and the Tour is still far away but mojo is mojo and his is bad. If Basso does not make the top five in the Giro, my mojo indicator is working and I’ll stand by it. Sorry Australia, you had a good (but short) run. English types, enjoy these years, they won’t last. They never do. And you from Luxembourg, we will talk in private.
The internal Sky problem of Cav versus Twiggo is solved -the Olympic road race is not far from the end of the Tour and Cav is the home field contender for Olympic gold. He will bail early, Sky will put their eggs in a basket made of Twiggs. How can I say these things with any authority? I can’t, I have none, look at my VSP points. But come the end of the Giro and Basso is smoking like a hippie’s motorbike, (which is a bad thing, not a good thing) then my mojo meter is obviously working and who has the big brain then?
Postscript: Basso did finish in the top five of the Giro, barely, so my mojo indicator is not completely tuned in. It could have something to do with the solar maximum. Twiggo has reported in from his secret base in the Atlantic that he has climbed to the moon and back, daily, so he is still ticking boxes. I’m still feeling good about all this.
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I know I should support him being, being a Brit and all, but I struggle to warm to him.
He thanked nobody for his fourth place in the 2009 TDF and has increasingly "been stitched up" by the media.
He has however done pretty weel in all he has done so far this year.
A tough one, maybe worth a punt, I hope he does, I just can't see him getting to end of a grand tour without something happening.
@SimonH
He got to the end of last years Vuelta without anything happening. CObTHO attacked on a steepish hill and when Wiggo said "legs, follow him" nothing happened.
I'm with ya on this one G. I've been having the same feeling about Twiggo vs Cadelo. The thing is that I like Cadel and was totally stoked about his Tour win and I've always felt kind of "meh" about Wiggins. But I've had the same "premonitions" lately. Bad Cadel will rear its ugly head once again and he will melt away into history. The Schlecks, well they just suck. They can't help it, they just do. The British Empire will once again rise to dominate the world with Bradley crushing on one front and Cav on another.
Btw, "free thinkers" aren't. They just think they are.
I forgot to add that I think a "changing of the guard" is in the near future. What with Ryder's pink and Dombrowski's performance at the ToC not to mention Sagan casually coming through the peloton after the odd mechanical or shunt to ride people off his wheel and then add to that all the "contenders" that never seem to rise to the level of expectations I think the youngsters are really going to start kicking ass and taking names.
@Chris
Yeah but Chris Froome had a better Vuelta that anybody expected, I'd say don't count him out if is fit for TDF.
Wiggo blamed his too low gearing on the collapse on the Angliru, shame he didnt check it out enough beforehand, might have been different, he tried climbing it with those stupid oval rings, the same ones that jumped his chain off in the TT at the Tour of Romandie.
wow, what a slippery slope with all the do's, pictures ala carte off Google et. al.
@Gianni: this was the topic between me and my buddy on our loop yesterday, between killer pulls and me getting dropped off the back between hills.
This years TdF is a wide open gap, and IMHO a prime year for the picking for whoever wills it.
Wiggo can, and may for all the reasons you state. He is in form and will be a contender due to the TT. **Andy, are you listening? its called T-I-M-E-T-R-I-A-L
JV did a masterful job of honing Wiggo in transition from his track engine to the road engin, and his leaving Garmin and going to Sky, whilest a lucarative endeavor and one of nationalistic pride...and respectable, was less than brilliant when it came to the coaching department. Any and all arguements against this can see his palmares list please
But, 2 years later now, he does have a shot, a real shot at it.
And so does everyone else. There is no overwhelming favorite in the heap. Andy, after last years performance is mediocre, Cuddles, is off the mark in terms of his preparations and has had illness's apparently. Nibbles, may make a run at it, but so could Basso. Other than Ryder, I really don't realistically see anyone for Garmin that can be a contender, VDV....Tommy, neither seem to be readied at all. And the shack has nothing else, and they sure as hell better do better than Franks showing as the leader at the Giro.
Yes, its a wide open race for the maillot-juane
and if someone hungry like DeGendt shows up to the prom with a heart full of Belgian pride, and WILL....kiss his ass goodbye, he'll run up the road and drop the so called big boys like a bad smell. This year that may just happen, especially since they are all riding like humans and the attacks at the Giro were literally in the single digits on the GC'rs.
While we look at Gianni's carbon balls I thought it was worth going back and looking at the VSP picks, courtesy of Frank's data (page 10 if you want to look) about the frequency and rank of picks in the VSP.
I took the ranking data and weighted it - so each 1st place pick got 5 points and fifth place 1 point etc, excluding the surprising number of picks of people who weren't actually riding.
With weighted scores the table was:
1 Scarponi 517
2 Basso 412
3 Kreuziger 338
4 Rodriguez 194
5 Schleck F 143
6 Hesjedal 132
7 Cunego 95
8 Rujano 53
9 Gadret 44
10 Pinotti 22
11 Pozzovivo 21
12 Uran 19
13 Visconti 11
14 Ballan 9
15 De Gendt 6
16 Goss 6
17 Ituralde 4
18 Van de Velde 3
19 Thomas 2
There were another 10 who received only 1 pick in any position so I've excluded them as random noise... whoever picked Flecha for the win !
So clearly our podium, in order, was Scarponi, Basso and Kreuziger.
This also reflects that more people picked Scarponi for first, Basso for second (after Scarponi actually, but only by one pick) and Kreuziger for third, just by number of picks.
Fourth and fifth were closer - in weighted score it was Rodriguez, followed by Schleck. But Rodriguez didn't top the picks in any position - Schleck was most popular for fourth (and fifth) followed by Hesjedal for fifth. Hesjedal was sixth in the weighted scores.
So we had consensus that it would be Scarponi, Basso and Kreuziger on the steps, with Schleck, J-rod and Hesjedal battling for fourth and fifth.
The conclusion is that we collectively know fuck all about it.
We got three of the top five but not in the right order and only one of the top three.
We got only five of the top ten.
One of the actual top ten wasn't picked by anyone.
Two of the actual top ten were picked by fewer than five people.
Our top three collected 61.8% of all picks.
The actual top three got just 16.2% of all weighted picks.
Four of the actual top ten had just 1.5% of all weighted picks between them.
On the other hand, had you taken the top 10 and put a bet on each of them you would have come out well ahead. Hesjedal was quoted at up to 50-1 just before the race.
I don't know what the each way odds were but that would have produced a decent return as well with De Gendt and Rodriguez.
@SimonH
Yeah, that was what I read too. Amazing that for all their much vaunted prep, Sky didn't reconnoitre the climb and find appropriate gear ratios. I think they also had a dilemma in that Froome could have won if given a clear shot, but Wiggo was designated leader. Upshot? 2nd and 3rd when better tactics could have brought 1st and 2nd. It'll be interesting how Sky play the Cav and Wiggo cards in he Tour. Will Cav get a couple of trusty domestiques for the flat stages, while others re held in reserve for the mountains for Wwiggo?
Whatever. It's going o be a wide open and interesting Tour. If DeGendt recovers well and with some new-found confidence, who's top say the podium is not possible? Will the Schlecks step up or just fanny about? With 100kms of TT riding, the skinny boys have to do something big in the mountains.
@ChrisO - nice work! Either you've been fired (so you had time on your hands during the day to complete this), or your family have already left you behind in the heat for the summer (so you had time on your hands during the evening to complete this).
@Monty
;-) A bit of both - being fired has been high on the agenda in recent months but I managed to jump before I was pushed and handed in my resignation today !
And the family is coming out tomorrow night for half term so I finished it off this evening.