The glow from the Giro is still visible, everything is still pink but I’m jumping ahead of all the Wilcocksons of the world with a bold Tour de France prognostication. And to do this I’ve borrowed Frank’s carbon ball, oft used for somewhat accurate predictions of future cycling events. This article was written weeks ago, at the start of the Giro but the frenzy of creative writing out of the front office has kept this buried. It’s now or never.
What can you say about Twiggo? I can say he is heading towards a win in the Tour de France this year.
I have raised issues with a rubbish haircut and cycling knee socks but these are superficial stylistic issues. Who am I to do that? I’m shiet. We need as many free thinkers as possible in cycling and if Bradley or Vaughters have different sideburns, excellent. Conformity is over-rated. Forget the socks, have you noticed his profile on the bike. He has the flattest back in the peloton and not by chance. I bet he and Sky are ticking every stinking little box to get this done.
He won Paris-Nice riding like a true professional, taking up Moser’s method of cooling down after each climbing stage by riding a stationary bike. He won Tour of Romandie like a seasoned veteran and won a field sprint for a stage win! He is winning these on his time trailing strength but not losing them by always riding at the front and climbing well enough. Yes, the Tour is different, the climbs are harder but he is a better climber than the Schlecks are time trialists. He did podium in last year’s Vuelta. He is experienced enough to not chase down every acceleration on a stiff climb, he just tempos it out, smoothing out the highs and lows. Bradley is one smart rider.
How does he stack up against Cadel? That is the question better informed people than myself would hope to answer correctly. Cadel’s mojo has been tainted so far this year and the Tour is still far away but mojo is mojo and his is bad. If Basso does not make the top five in the Giro, my mojo indicator is working and I’ll stand by it. Sorry Australia, you had a good (but short) run. English types, enjoy these years, they won’t last. They never do. And you from Luxembourg, we will talk in private.
The internal Sky problem of Cav versus Twiggo is solved -the Olympic road race is not far from the end of the Tour and Cav is the home field contender for Olympic gold. He will bail early, Sky will put their eggs in a basket made of Twiggs. How can I say these things with any authority? I can’t, I have none, look at my VSP points. But come the end of the Giro and Basso is smoking like a hippie’s motorbike, (which is a bad thing, not a good thing) then my mojo meter is obviously working and who has the big brain then?
Postscript: Basso did finish in the top five of the Giro, barely, so my mojo indicator is not completely tuned in. It could have something to do with the solar maximum. Twiggo has reported in from his secret base in the Atlantic that he has climbed to the moon and back, daily, so he is still ticking boxes. I’m still feeling good about all this.
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@Gianni
mainly I was I was watching the race instead of getting my predictions in on time... ;) Plus my strict Cat 5 training regimen was taking up lots of time...
@ Gianni
although since its the Giro it technically should be the Maglia Nero...
@ChrisO
I've said this before - going with the herd in the VSP picks is the safe option - you're likely to pick up some points - probably the herd average. It rewards conformity - and if there's one thing we aren't its conformists - hell no.
Is there a way to incentivise risk taking? Maybe giving a multiplier to those picking riders with less than, say, four other picks? Or would Frank's head explode?
One simple way to do it would be to hide the picks until the event starts, not that I'm advocating it.
I was more interested in the 'wisdom of crowds' aspect and whether any collective insights were to be found.
Apparently not.
Even if you hide the pick's most will still go with general press punditry - they just won't take their cues from here.
Maybe you could divide the points of each winning rider by the number of people picking them. So if Nibbles wins and everyone and their best friend has picked him you get 0.0000000234 of a point but if Judas spite us all by winning the you get 5 points divided by the one person that picked him.
@Erik
Our Italian friend and great photo, Pedale, pleaded against fish-eye lens so we are respecting his feelings. Then I posted a photo of David Millar instead of Wiggins, ooops, and Frank corrected it.
@Cyclops
Yeah, I agree about the youth, especially Sagan, who is damn young to be such a badass. Cuddles is not getting any younger but for these 3 week tours the old buggahs seem to handle it better.
@Gerard
You are correct sir. My VMH found a reproduction Pinarello Maglia Nero jersey in Paris, such a find. Black with pink details, only on small sizes or I would have grabbed one myself. Damn these little cyclists.
@SimonH
Weird. Why didn't he just shift to a harder gear then using his "gears"?
Apologies again for my Sid Vicious reference (yesterday) and the horrible graphic on his t-shirt.
@ChrisO
If I found out that you needed data analysis to determine that we know fuck all about cycling predictions I would have sacked you before you resigned.
Looking forward to some quality prognostication from you whilst you have some time on your hands
@Gianni
Grazie!