Gianni’s Carbon Ball: Sir Twiggo
The glow from the Giro is still visible, everything is still pink but I’m jumping ahead of all the Wilcocksons of the world with a bold Tour de France prognostication. And to do this I’ve borrowed Frank’s carbon ball, oft used for somewhat accurate predictions of future cycling events. This article was written weeks ago, at the start of the Giro but the frenzy of creative writing out of the front office has kept this buried. It’s now or never.
What can you say about Twiggo? I can say he is heading towards a win in the Tour de France this year.
I have raised issues with a rubbish haircut and cycling knee socks but these are superficial stylistic issues. Who am I to do that? I’m shiet. We need as many free thinkers as possible in cycling and if Bradley or Vaughters have different sideburns, excellent. Conformity is over-rated. Forget the socks, have you noticed his profile on the bike. He has the flattest back in the peloton and not by chance. I bet he and Sky are ticking every stinking little box to get this done.
He won Paris-Nice riding like a true professional, taking up Moser’s method of cooling down after each climbing stage by riding a stationary bike. He won Tour of Romandie like a seasoned veteran and won a field sprint for a stage win! He is winning these on his time trailing strength but not losing them by always riding at the front and climbing well enough. Yes, the Tour is different, the climbs are harder but he is a better climber than the Schlecks are time trialists. He did podium in last year’s Vuelta. He is experienced enough to not chase down every acceleration on a stiff climb, he just tempos it out, smoothing out the highs and lows. Bradley is one smart rider.
How does he stack up against Cadel? That is the question better informed people than myself would hope to answer correctly. Cadel’s mojo has been tainted so far this year and the Tour is still far away but mojo is mojo and his is bad. If Basso does not make the top five in the Giro, my mojo indicator is working and I’ll stand by it. Sorry Australia, you had a good (but short) run. English types, enjoy these years, they won’t last. They never do. And you from Luxembourg, we will talk in private.
The internal Sky problem of Cav versus Twiggo is solved -the Olympic road race is not far from the end of the Tour and Cav is the home field contender for Olympic gold. He will bail early, Sky will put their eggs in a basket made of Twiggs. How can I say these things with any authority? I can’t, I have none, look at my VSP points. But come the end of the Giro and Basso is smoking like a hippie’s motorbike, (which is a bad thing, not a good thing) then my mojo meter is obviously working and who has the big brain then?
Postscript: Basso did finish in the top five of the Giro, barely, so my mojo indicator is not completely tuned in. It could have something to do with the solar maximum. Twiggo has reported in from his secret base in the Atlantic that he has climbed to the moon and back, daily, so he is still ticking boxes. I’m still feeling good about all this.
Hmmm, I’d say I agree. It would be a great win and Twiggo can do it.
But, I would venture a guess that the colonials will still give an appropriately fine showing. Mojo aside, Cadel will defend well. And there is that Canadian kid. While things are up for debate in the G-B camp, he just won a little race in Italy, so he may provide some competition. And Basso will come to play too!
Coincidentally, the Bike Snob has a few comments on Wiggo as well today.
http://bikesnobnyc.blogspot.com/2012/05/share-me-river-there-is-such-thing-as.html
Wiggo may be capable, but Sky will let him down.
Brailsford has earned his stripes in a world where mostly you just have to be the fittest and fastest. I still don’t think they have got to grips with road racing, especially over a grand tour.
I think Wiggo will take Le Tour, barring any crash or like incident removing him from the race. Due to the route and his current form he’ll never have a better chance to win it and I think he knows its now or never. His socks and haircut are still shit though.
Nice write up. Cannot wait for June 30th! Can possibly see Twiggo on the podium, but the win? Who knows, I definitely do not (reference my VSP as well).
@Dan_R
Is Basso riding the tdf? I think Nibbles has the lead there for the Italians. Also, is Ryder going to the tour? Cannot imagine he will be a contender if he does show up after gassing himself so much in the Giro.
@VeloVita
That was my thinking too, he may never have such a beneficial route as a strong TT man. And yes, I agree, socks and hair are shit, I was just being generous.
@ChrisO
Interesting thought. Sky has proved to miss some tactical nuance, like the recent Giro, and having the world’s best sprinter won’t help. They better have Sean Yates at the wheel for this cluster faaaack then. He will set things right, or not.
@Dan_R
It’s been too quiet on the Cadel front. Too quiet. I haven’t heard from him since…so long I can’t remember.
I would think Ryder will be a bit shagged come TdF and be riding for VDV if he rides it at all. He might skip it and prep for Canadian Gold in London. Basso? Hmmm, we shall see.
@The Oracle
Oh good, Bike Snob thinks Wiggins has no chance. I’ll be happy to see him wrong come July. Nice Terry bike in that ad though.
@Buck Rogers
Ryder is currently listed as starting the Tour. (cyclingfans.com)
@scaler911
Belay my last its: http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjI5MTU=
Been thinking hard about this (well hard by my somewhat lax standards).
I’m shallow but sidies and over long socks speak of some preparation issue somewhere. I think Wiggo will make the podium if he stays upright but I just don’t think he has the panache to win.
More contemplation before I can tell you who will win but this might be a year for someone new to burst on the scene. Think about it – Sky are the target – everyone will attack them all the time as they’re the team to beat. They might be able to fend off one or two teams using their obvious strength but half the field ganging up on them?
So what I think will happen (and this is May so I can still change my mind) is that Sky will collectively blow up. Cavendouche will go first as he’ll have a disappointing start, realise he hasn’t got a hope and jack it in early to do what he should have done in the first place – focus on the Olympics.
Then under the weight of the attacks Sky will lose coherence and another team will keep it together and be the one to beat to Paris. In these circumstances a non-team leading rider that has gone under our collective radars will take the chance to put a couple of good days together and be in with a shout of being on the top step at the end.
I reserve the right to be entirely predictable with my VSP picks however as some of the favourites will be there or thereabouts and I’ll get a point or two.
I’ve got everything crossed for Wiggo!
One thing’s for sure, he’ll never have a better chance of winning the big one. If he stay’s upright and healthy i really can see him doing something quite special.
Leading Cav to Olympic Gold a week later would just about finish things off!
@Dan_R
I’d be surprised if Ryder does the Tour this year. If he does it certainly won’t be for himself. I suppose he could sit in and recover till the mountains, then be a super domestique for a teammate. Ryder and his team don’t strike me as the types to engage in the type of “preparation” needed to go for the double.
If Basso does the Tour it will be to ride for Nibali, although the latter seems to be burning quite a few bridges with his soon to be former team.
@Nate
Nice one! I don’t think they will take the “preparation” needed for the double either. Actually, while Ryder will be a great SD for VDV (until VDV crashes or performs typically…) I think we will get another “sleeper” on the TdF podium. Basso is still lurking, I wouldn’t count him out, but yes, Nibbles is a good choice from the Italian camp too.
@ChrisO
Sky did a good job at the Tour de Romandie. And we will see another command performance at Tour de Suisse
enjoyed reading that ; looking forward to a wiggo vanendert cuddels smashout to manny TT km’s for the frere’s pussy
For sure Wiggins is a serious contender for the Tour, we’ll see.
Actually is Vincenzo Nibali the rider I like best.
But I’d like to use this space to declare my total opposition to the use of the fisheye lens in cycling. There are some (very) good photographers that have been lured by this lens.
Resist the temptation of eye candy!
Frank and Andy are taking it this year, for reals this time!
/not really…
Think cadel has been purposely quiet. He has been training the house down and in terms of preparation his diligence is second to none.
I think Twiggo shows all the signs of too good too early. The Dauphine will be revealing. Evans will have improved but Wiggins will win and England will erupt in cyclings ultimate show of premature adulation.
Evans will win out. Remember last year – no one tipped Evo for the Tour. yes Evans’ early results were better but this year he was ill at races. Won’t affect his form come Tour time.
Stranger things have happened. I mean, Ryder won the Giro…
@Nate
All suggestions indicate that Ryder will be in France, but riding for who? I’m not sure he sees himself as anyone’s lieutenant, and won’t be able to contend himself, I wouldn’t think.
@Gianni
Dude! This was going to be my little VSP coup. I was all over this and was going to drop the boom on the VSP standings by backing Wiggo. You’ve stolen my thunder, but I’m liking what I’m seeing in the Wiggo camp. The modfather’s for real and I think he has the maturity and character to better deal with the leadership responsibilities.
…and can anyone really see a Schleck on the podium? That’s quite a transformation in a very short period of time…
@Marcus
He must be off in the Alps, cultivating his panache.
@Steampunk
Maybe he’ll try to bag a big stage?
@Steampunk
Unless the current soap opera with Brunyeel is a ruse to distract everyone from a sudden ability to actually ride contre le montre instead of complain about it, no.
@brett
So a former mountain biker wins the Giro, and you’re all mwa wah wah wah, former Mountain biker wins the tour and you’re all ‘Best thing evah! Bum chin makes him uniquely handsome! And Aero! And he rode a mountain bike on stage 14, so full suspension 29ers are the fastest bike evah!” Et cetera.
Cougar chaser.
@Marcus
Your devotion to your countryman is unparalleled. Especially by evidence or logic. Its beautiful. This post is, to coin a term on your behalf, Frankian: while not necessarily wrong, a hopelessly romantic statement based on speculation, passion and hope much more than reason or fact.
I think Wiggo has the best form of the current contenders and to be honest at the moment the Schlecks will be lucky to be wearing wigs and posing as podium girls – I think thats the closest they’ll get this year unless their form suddenly improves….
@Pedale.Forchetta
I agree on both counts. That photo is eye-catching, but once you look at it all the beautiful planes and dynamics of cycling are distorted.
Different rider, but to me, this photo is much more dynamic and thrilling:
Gianni, I can’t decide if you’re crazy or brilliant. You called Ryder for the Giro and declared Basso at below fifth (which, of course you already pointed out is exactly the place he got so neither proves nor disproves your mojo) but I’d say if anything, you just doomed Wiggo for the simple reason that we have a professional responsibility at Velominati to make ourselves look like tits and this kind of prognostication will fit in perfectly after he falls off on Stage 3 after winning the Dauphine.
Lightning don’t strike twice in the same place, shugah.
How long can the frank&andy still hack it as future big winners (not by default but actually win it) and keep a positive media aura around them that people are still willing to back them for bankrolling their ventures.
they are far to specif as rides to be of much use one anyting other than the steepes and highest of climbs
From wich they don’t dare descend as a bat out of hell to protect that lead.
those guys are basically usefull on 5/6 stages a year and only on the uphill.
i think its time for them to bulck up a bit and also be in contention for the ardennes
i cant get my head around on how you stake your whole year (and that of the team)on one GT and then leave as much flaws in your armour to protect that win, they are no lance who could basically only do the tour
@minion
When are you coming back mate? I miss having you around. Canberra isn’t good for you, is it?
Wiggins has looked great so far this year and I’m putting my VSP hopes on him. As for Basso he might be a great rider but the Giro showed that he doesn’t have it in him to win a grand tour anymore. Nibali will be lucky to podium in the Tour.
For some reason I cant get excited about Wiggins. Maybe I need to watch him race more-
But I agree with @Pedale.Forchetta, Nibali is my guy the time around.
@frank
I learned at the master’s feet. We are nothing if not full of shit here at Velomnati. Who else uses a carbon ball and a mojo meter in place of actual reporting?
Are We Not Entertained?!
@RedRanger
although the Wiggo show is entertaining…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxWPdnjk3I8&feature=share
the Wiggo show now with link….
@frank
Frank – this whole site is based on:
1. Speculation – the VSP;
2. Passion – getting into arguments over nothing (Camo-gate is probably the finest recent example; and
3. Hope – hope that one writes a post that entertains others but at the same time makes fun of a rider or a fellow community member.
What more do you want from me other than to write shit like this?
Cadel still wins – whilst very different riders, Wiggo reminds me very much of Mayo in 2004 who was oh so very hot prior to the Tour. And Twiggo hasnt exactly shown himself to the most consistent 3-week rider…
Fuck it. I will say this much, and I’m going to be right, but the Tour will be won by someone with a Kiwi on their team. You all can make whatever stupid arguments you want in the meantime, but I don’t care so long as you thank me when I’m right.
And THAT is how you avoid semantic arguments on the internet. Near insane shortsightedness combined with a sliver of plausibility.
@Gianni
Nipple Lube. I can’t decide if Marcus is a comic genius, a massive cuznor, or a massive comic cuznor.
@Pedale.Forchetta
Yes, you have to like Vincenzo. He is Italy’s best hope in the Tour. His lack of form in the Tour of California could be taken as a good sign, he is peaking in two months, or not.
Hit refresh, I’ve done your bidding. No more fish eyes. It”s funny you mentioned it as it was not my first choice for photo and somehow I gave that one a second look. And went with it.
@minion
I don’t know what a cuznor is, I can guess, but I’d go with massive comic cuznor, it’s why we like him so much.
@Marcus
I declare foul! Damn it man, Mayo? So uncool. Getting on the 2011 Vuelta Podium is pretty f’ing consistent. Cobo is very much like Mayo.
@Belgian Cobblestones
Andy is 32 years old. Cycling waits for no one. Start chasing that win. We will see.
@Gerard
heheheeee. +1 mr lantern rouge
I’m still completely baffled about how I can enter a VSP on the second rest day, with a 50 point penalty, and not come last. I had 4 stages to earn points, and the only explanation I have is that Gerard must be English, and thus genetically predisposed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Whoops, in the context of this thread, that’s probably not the best statement to make, I’ll just get me coat…
@minion
@Gianni
yeah what the fuck is a cuznor? Not even google could tell me.
Gianni, consistency usually requires more than one result. A podium at the Vuelta and a 4th at the Tour a few years back doesn’t meet that in my book. In terms of consistency Wiggo has been more consistent at having a jour sans or two at every Grand Tour he races. That being said, I like Wiggo a lot – except for when he towelled up Bradley McGee at the Olympics.
@minion
The VSP is somewhat like a vending machine — sometimes it just takes your quarters. And it does not matter.
@versio
Wrong brother unless you’re doing some time travelling. Andy is 26, Fränk is 32.
@minion
Yeah, but you tied for last. So you suck as much as an Englishman. Or at least a Kiwi, despite your Bogan identity crisis.
I did say I’ld bare my arse in Bourke St last year if Cadel won. I haven’t done it yet, but I definitely will this year if he backs up.
@Marcus
That’s funny, you nationalistic slobberpuss. I always thought Wiggo’s low water mark was sitting at the roadside in the – was it 2006 – Tour, WEEPING because he was in a solo break and the bunch wasn’t chasing him hard enough.
WEEPING.
AT THE SIDE OF THE ROAD.
@frank
Frank is 32. Cycling waits for no one. Start chasing that win. Yea…
@Marcus
It’s how groms in NZ get to say a dirty word without getting in trouble. And it’s fun to say.
Malcolm Tucker’s explanation
Andy is just a baby.