Gianni’s Carbon Ball: Sir Twiggo
The glow from the Giro is still visible, everything is still pink but I’m jumping ahead of all the Wilcocksons of the world with a bold Tour de France prognostication. And to do this I’ve borrowed Frank’s carbon ball, oft used for somewhat accurate predictions of future cycling events. This article was written weeks ago, at the start of the Giro but the frenzy of creative writing out of the front office has kept this buried. It’s now or never.
What can you say about Twiggo? I can say he is heading towards a win in the Tour de France this year.
I have raised issues with a rubbish haircut and cycling knee socks but these are superficial stylistic issues. Who am I to do that? I’m shiet. We need as many free thinkers as possible in cycling and if Bradley or Vaughters have different sideburns, excellent. Conformity is over-rated. Forget the socks, have you noticed his profile on the bike. He has the flattest back in the peloton and not by chance. I bet he and Sky are ticking every stinking little box to get this done.
He won Paris-Nice riding like a true professional, taking up Moser’s method of cooling down after each climbing stage by riding a stationary bike. He won Tour of Romandie like a seasoned veteran and won a field sprint for a stage win! He is winning these on his time trailing strength but not losing them by always riding at the front and climbing well enough. Yes, the Tour is different, the climbs are harder but he is a better climber than the Schlecks are time trialists. He did podium in last year’s Vuelta. He is experienced enough to not chase down every acceleration on a stiff climb, he just tempos it out, smoothing out the highs and lows. Bradley is one smart rider.
How does he stack up against Cadel? That is the question better informed people than myself would hope to answer correctly. Cadel’s mojo has been tainted so far this year and the Tour is still far away but mojo is mojo and his is bad. If Basso does not make the top five in the Giro, my mojo indicator is working and I’ll stand by it. Sorry Australia, you had a good (but short) run. English types, enjoy these years, they won’t last. They never do. And you from Luxembourg, we will talk in private.
The internal Sky problem of Cav versus Twiggo is solved -the Olympic road race is not far from the end of the Tour and Cav is the home field contender for Olympic gold. He will bail early, Sky will put their eggs in a basket made of Twiggs. How can I say these things with any authority? I can’t, I have none, look at my VSP points. But come the end of the Giro and Basso is smoking like a hippie’s motorbike, (which is a bad thing, not a good thing) then my mojo meter is obviously working and who has the big brain then?
Postscript: Basso did finish in the top five of the Giro, barely, so my mojo indicator is not completely tuned in. It could have something to do with the solar maximum. Twiggo has reported in from his secret base in the Atlantic that he has climbed to the moon and back, daily, so he is still ticking boxes. I’m still feeling good about all this.
Pierre Roland, Tom Danielson and Jonny Hoogerland in a complete podium shakeup. You saw it here first.
Sky aren’t the only team with multiple egos to stroke.
BMC would have hoped to get Thor and Giblets a bit of silverware (stoneware?) in the spring. Now they’ll have to enter them as stage hunters and hope to get a result early on. Not to mention Ballan. Who knows how the team spirit is? Maybe Cadel could host a piano recital / dog grooming party to promote team bonding. Failing that there’s always the fall back position of uniting against a common enemy: Is there an English rider to gang up against?
Who remembers when Fränk Schleck went over the guard rail (Tour de Suisse) ?
I like the Modfather, but he’s done so much already this year, and he’s getting a lot of press. Lots of press is a sign to me that one is in serious threat of buying high and selling low.
Barring injury, I’ll take Evans, I think. Maybe. Definite possibility.
Wouldn’t it be great if Nibali wins? No Italian makes the podium at the Giro, but one smacks down the world and takes the Yellow Jersey. I hope he at least stays in the fight to the end.
@Marcus
Yes, despite being one of those colonials ( beats me why they sent us out here, we got the better country in the end !! ) I do believe cuddles can back to back the lap of France… as for the other podium steps, cant rule out Mr Basso and that funny speaking dude thats 18ft tall from Canada … believe he recently won some obscure race in italy….
@minion
yeah baby, In the Loop, that was proper swearing. Those writers are doing a show on HBO and they have one guy on retainer who they use just to write killer swearing. I believe he is English.
@harminator
This is who I believe Garmin will be riding for. I can’t stand Vaughters, but he seems to know what he’s doing.
Hey Bradley, John Lennon called and wants his hair back. I gotta get the rugger to bed, then I’m going to get into this.
@scaler911
So thats John Lennon?
@Gianni
PS in another sign of how much we have to learn in our cycling knowledge, I guarantee Oli knows what a Cuznor is,and may even have coined the word.
@scaler911
That was just an excuse for you to post a photo of a bloke (albeit a Gallagher) with long hair. Transgender issues abound for you Scaler
@RedRanger
No. It’s actually Liam Gallagher from Oasis. But the similarity is striking isn’t it?
@scaler911
I actually new that. I was wondering what you were up to. in other words I was making a rhetorical question.
I actually like his hair btw.
@scaler911
Bradley (hair) is really more like this — Sid Vicious!
@versio
Oh my God… too late. Frank… shut her down!
@scaler911
I’m sorry. I’m sorry. I’m sorry. I’m sorry. Agggh!
Not sure the real thing is any easier on the eye
@Marcus
Cadel has the gaze of Nosferatu.
I’m going to go way out on a limb here, and Merckx knows I’ve got nothing to lose given my VSP standings, but I’m thinking like a couple others here that it’s gonna be a relative unknown.
BMC has the biggest shit ton of talent ever. I think they’ll make a good run at it, and Cuddles will get the podium, but not the top.
I think it’s going to go to someone that’s not really getting paid attention to, and having a strong group around him, is gonna surprise. Jorge Van Den Broeck. He was looking solid last year before him and Menchov crashed hard in the downhill.
I mean really, this year, has been full of this shit happening; A Canadian wins the Giro? LBL is Iglinsky. The best Giblets can pull off is a 3rd at Flèche.
Gesink. I like his chances too.
@scaler911
Im in the same boat. may as well go for broke. would like to see Gesink kick some ass, just behind Nibbles.
@scaler911
In how they look? Yes. In where they’re from? Yes. Musically? Like Campag vs the bro-set
@Marcus
Cadel’s chin is hella aero.
@scaler911, @RedRanger
Been thinking about Gesink but isn’t he yet another tall climber who can’t put in a good TT? The last TT is 53 km, pancake flat. Ugly terrain for tall spindly climbers.
(article photo) Bradley looking close to Screech in Saved By The Bell. Episode where Screech saves summer vacation with a good time trial.
@minion
For a start I know it’s cunzor, not cuznor. You cunzor.
@Oli
hehe, thank you. Yeah, cunzor is alot more fun to say. Minion is losing it. He is becoming an Aussie.
It sounds like the Dauphiné will start to show whose carbon ball and whose mojo-meter is working properly. With Da Shark, Cadel and the Twig all lining up we will know something, maybe. Or not.
@Gianni
AM NOT! MArcus will need to supply you with the ‘Strine version of that word I’m afraid. I won’t stoop so low.
Strine – Carnt
Probably Cuddles, Bradley will see his socks in a mirror and fall off his bike. Otherwise Nibbles. Jens will lead Radio Luxemborg, you heard it here first!
@scaler911
If only I knew how to choose relative unknowns. Relatively, I tend to be pack fodder at this game.
And why did the cover photo for this story change? Eh? (and by “eh?” I mean I’m getting on the Canadian bandwagon and plan to go only with Canadian riders from now on.)
I like wiggins and would be happy if he wins. I understand why people don’t ‘get’ him but at least he actually has a personality.
I think Sky have played quite an interesting position in terms of press and gone out saying that Wiggins is riding the tour to win. I think starting with that sort of attitude counts a lot in terms of the mind games. BMC may have a great squad but they’ve achieved very little so far this year – maybe on purpose?
The best thing for wiggins was crashing out early last year – he wouldn’t of won and returns as a vastly improved rider going into this years race.
I also wouldn’t write Cav off as quitting too early, he’s going to stay as long as possible.
@frank – could additional points jersey and KOM picks could be added to the VSP for Le Tour?
@minion
You’ve stooped as low as you can go already… Canberra, ffs.
@scaler911
The guy in the picture is a knob and unrepresentative of UK, well, the bits we cycle in anyway
Gianni, thanks for allowing us to publicly consider Twiggy as a true contender now – I am already sick with nerves, either waiting for him to crash, or watching him suffer helplessly against the attacks, as he plugs away at his high mountain TTing after Richie Porte and the boys have blown their gaskets – it will be a mentally torrid affair for all us Twiglets out there
I wonder is it possible he will go at 95% in the Dauphine so as not to peak to early, after all, he is going for a double peak effectively, let Cuddles have the small pot, and then go for the motherfucker of all Tours in July
I for one and very scared….
I reckon if Cadel doesn’t come good Wiggins is as good a pick as anyone, if not better. And it would be great for cycling if a Pom won the Tour, let’s face it.
The betting shops reckon Wiggins has a decent chance, I don’t ever use these establishments but a month ago in need of a toilet (which I was going to need several times that week) I went in to William Hill and after using their services decided to put a fiver on Wiggins for le Tour win, only got 5-2.
Gianni youse constantly crack me up and because I can’t be arsed to read more cycling stuff than this site I have little to add to the Lap of France (thanks Barracuda) discussion. All I know is that post vampire/beef juice the racing is fun again. Sure Wiggo has a good chance but my Boston roots mesh nicely with the Anglo trip and that basically means that like the Red Socks, yes they will win in a blue moon, but the English have a tendency to be and look great but in the end usually fail (all be it gloriously, if dying is glorious?).
@snoov
There are so many questions in here @snoov – do you not have a toilet in your house? Do you avoid crapping for lengthy periods of time and then catch up at William Hill’s for a few days until its all cleared up and you can go back to storage mode?
Anyway – the guys who set the odds are just being prudent. Wiggo will be well backed by certain segments of the population who don’t just see William Hill as one up from a ditch and supplying toilet paper to boot (plucky English bloke showing foreigners the way – go on my son – that sort of thing) – as they are really easily parted from their cash not because they know anything. By this time the odds will reflect the amount wagered rather than the opinion of the William Hill guys who set the odds in the first place.
@the Engine
To answer some of your questions:
I have a toilet in my house.
I use it at least once a day.
I was working in a flat a few doors down from William Hill.
All sanitary ware from the bathroom had been removed.
@snoov
Was it like the toilet in Trainspotting? I hope not . . .
I’m afraid that Wiggo will do well in the Dauphine then the British “red top” tabloids will embrace and hail him as the winner presumptive. Then, if he fails to win in Paris, will turn on him with fury and scorn unabated. It’s the red top way: build them up, the kick them down mercilessly.
eggs in a basket made of Twiggs…AWESOME!
Winning that field sprint was awesome too. Damn, to see a tall, lanky bastard win a sprint was very, very impressive. Didn’t know he had it in em.
Gotta say that one thing that blows about modern cycling is the specialization we now have. I read that Cadel is the defended TdF champ. My first thought was, “Really?” It seems like so damn long ago that he won & that I actually saw him on a bike that I’ve kind of forgotten. That’s not good. (not trying to insult the Oz-zies, but damn, the guy has gone missing, it seems.)
Hmm, weeks away and I’m already pondering my VSP picks…
@wiscot
Hehe, only after I’d used it, a la Lemond, I was desperate but no-one had a cycling cap to hand me. Thankfully the flush cleaned it nicely. TMI? Refer to Rule #V.
I know I should support him being, being a Brit and all, but I struggle to warm to him.
He thanked nobody for his fourth place in the 2009 TDF and has increasingly “been stitched up” by the media.
He has however done pretty weel in all he has done so far this year.
A tough one, maybe worth a punt, I hope he does, I just can’t see him getting to end of a grand tour without something happening.
@SimonH
He got to the end of last years Vuelta without anything happening. CObTHO attacked on a steepish hill and when Wiggo said “legs, follow him” nothing happened.
I’m with ya on this one G. I’ve been having the same feeling about Twiggo vs Cadelo. The thing is that I like Cadel and was totally stoked about his Tour win and I’ve always felt kind of “meh” about Wiggins. But I’ve had the same “premonitions” lately. Bad Cadel will rear its ugly head once again and he will melt away into history. The Schlecks, well they just suck. They can’t help it, they just do. The British Empire will once again rise to dominate the world with Bradley crushing on one front and Cav on another.
Btw, “free thinkers” aren’t. They just think they are.
I forgot to add that I think a “changing of the guard” is in the near future. What with Ryder’s pink and Dombrowski’s performance at the ToC not to mention Sagan casually coming through the peloton after the odd mechanical or shunt to ride people off his wheel and then add to that all the “contenders” that never seem to rise to the level of expectations I think the youngsters are really going to start kicking ass and taking names.
@Chris
Yeah but Chris Froome had a better Vuelta that anybody expected, I’d say don’t count him out if is fit for TDF.
Wiggo blamed his too low gearing on the collapse on the Angliru, shame he didnt check it out enough beforehand, might have been different, he tried climbing it with those stupid oval rings, the same ones that jumped his chain off in the TT at the Tour of Romandie.
wow, what a slippery slope with all the do’s, pictures ala carte off Google et. al.
@Gianni: this was the topic between me and my buddy on our loop yesterday, between killer pulls and me getting dropped off the back between hills.
This years TdF is a wide open gap, and IMHO a prime year for the picking for whoever wills it.
Wiggo can, and may for all the reasons you state. He is in form and will be a contender due to the TT. **Andy, are you listening? its called T-I-M-E-T-R-I-A-L
JV did a masterful job of honing Wiggo in transition from his track engine to the road engin, and his leaving Garmin and going to Sky, whilest a lucarative endeavor and one of nationalistic pride…and respectable, was less than brilliant when it came to the coaching department. Any and all arguements against this can see his palmares list please
But, 2 years later now, he does have a shot, a real shot at it.
And so does everyone else. There is no overwhelming favorite in the heap. Andy, after last years performance is mediocre, Cuddles, is off the mark in terms of his preparations and has had illness’s apparently. Nibbles, may make a run at it, but so could Basso. Other than Ryder, I really don’t realistically see anyone for Garmin that can be a contender, VDV….Tommy, neither seem to be readied at all. And the shack has nothing else, and they sure as hell better do better than Franks showing as the leader at the Giro.
Yes, its a wide open race for the maillot-juane
and if someone hungry like DeGendt shows up to the prom with a heart full of Belgian pride, and WILL….kiss his ass goodbye, he’ll run up the road and drop the so called big boys like a bad smell. This year that may just happen, especially since they are all riding like humans and the attacks at the Giro were literally in the single digits on the GC’rs.
While we look at Gianni’s carbon balls I thought it was worth going back and looking at the VSP picks, courtesy of Frank’s data (page 10 if you want to look) about the frequency and rank of picks in the VSP.
I took the ranking data and weighted it – so each 1st place pick got 5 points and fifth place 1 point etc, excluding the surprising number of picks of people who weren’t actually riding.
With weighted scores the table was:
1 Scarponi 517
2 Basso 412
3 Kreuziger 338
4 Rodriguez 194
5 Schleck F 143
6 Hesjedal 132
7 Cunego 95
8 Rujano 53
9 Gadret 44
10 Pinotti 22
11 Pozzovivo 21
12 Uran 19
13 Visconti 11
14 Ballan 9
15 De Gendt 6
16 Goss 6
17 Ituralde 4
18 Van de Velde 3
19 Thomas 2
There were another 10 who received only 1 pick in any position so I’ve excluded them as random noise… whoever picked Flecha for the win !
So clearly our podium, in order, was Scarponi, Basso and Kreuziger.
This also reflects that more people picked Scarponi for first, Basso for second (after Scarponi actually, but only by one pick) and Kreuziger for third, just by number of picks.
Fourth and fifth were closer – in weighted score it was Rodriguez, followed by Schleck. But Rodriguez didn’t top the picks in any position – Schleck was most popular for fourth (and fifth) followed by Hesjedal for fifth. Hesjedal was sixth in the weighted scores.
So we had consensus that it would be Scarponi, Basso and Kreuziger on the steps, with Schleck, J-rod and Hesjedal battling for fourth and fifth.
The conclusion is that we collectively know fuck all about it.
We got three of the top five but not in the right order and only one of the top three.
We got only five of the top ten.
One of the actual top ten wasn’t picked by anyone.
Two of the actual top ten were picked by fewer than five people.
Our top three collected 61.8% of all picks.
The actual top three got just 16.2% of all weighted picks.
Four of the actual top ten had just 1.5% of all weighted picks between them.
On the other hand, had you taken the top 10 and put a bet on each of them you would have come out well ahead. Hesjedal was quoted at up to 50-1 just before the race.
I don’t know what the each way odds were but that would have produced a decent return as well with De Gendt and Rodriguez.
@SimonH
Yeah, that was what I read too. Amazing that for all their much vaunted prep, Sky didn’t reconnoitre the climb and find appropriate gear ratios. I think they also had a dilemma in that Froome could have won if given a clear shot, but Wiggo was designated leader. Upshot? 2nd and 3rd when better tactics could have brought 1st and 2nd. It’ll be interesting how Sky play the Cav and Wiggo cards in he Tour. Will Cav get a couple of trusty domestiques for the flat stages, while others re held in reserve for the mountains for Wwiggo?
Whatever. It’s going o be a wide open and interesting Tour. If DeGendt recovers well and with some new-found confidence, who’s top say the podium is not possible? Will the Schlecks step up or just fanny about? With 100kms of TT riding, the skinny boys have to do something big in the mountains.
@ChrisO – nice work! Either you’ve been fired (so you had time on your hands during the day to complete this), or your family have already left you behind in the heat for the summer (so you had time on your hands during the evening to complete this).
@Monty
;-) A bit of both – being fired has been high on the agenda in recent months but I managed to jump before I was pushed and handed in my resignation today !
And the family is coming out tomorrow night for half term so I finished it off this evening.