Winning one Monument in a career is more than most Pros will ever achieve. Winning two in a season, nearly impossible. Winning two a week apart, it has been done more than a few times, by only the toughest of men. The Ronde and Roubaix both have cobbles but that is about all they have in common. Roubaix might be the harder one to win. The evil Lady Luck lurks on the Roubaix course. Flats and crashes are more likely on the farm tracks of Northern France, helpful team cars can be minutes away. Granted, Miss Luck does like to install errant road furniture and roll loose bidons in feed zones in Ronde van Vlaanderen, and that is a cause for concern for some riders.
A paceline, drafting, hiding behind teammates all fall apart on the cobbled secteurs of Roubaix. The ability to hit the cobbled secteurs with the throttle jammed fully open again and again and again is what separates the beasts from everyone else. Speed on these stones is only sustainable by having huge power and a Roger De Vlaeminck ability to ride over the cobbles. It’s like riding your bike through sand; only power keeps the bike moving forward. If you ease up, you don’t go. Tom Boonen is the perfect example of power and ability and he has a mighty sprint. Who could even stay on his wheel to arrive in the velodrome for a sprint? Oh Tommy, you will be missed this year.
Historical perspective? I don’t think so, not here, not now. Paris-Roubaix is coming on like a freight train. Fabian Cancellara is halfway to the double, again. And unless some Johan Vansummeren break gets away… how did Boonen do it last year? He didn’t have to worry about towing everyone up the road, he just hauled ass, dropped everyone and rode away solo. That should work for Fabian. It doesn’t work on the route into Sanremo but it will work on the way to Roubaix. No wee Simon Gerrans will be riding in his slipstream all the way to the velodrome.
Who you want to pick for second through fifth place in the VSP tomorrow is your business. This is a lock I’m telling you. Bet everything you have. That college tuition your Dad gave you to hand over to the bursar, double it down somewhere, this is easy money. This is the double.
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@Ron
Farrar has made a career of crashing lately, which really sucks.
Meh.
What's so hard about the double. I did two in my lounge chair during the Flanders race.
A little like this one...
I'm putting my money on Phinney. Mainly because I think it is the only thing that would be cooler than the double.
@Ron I also think it's funny that in sports almost nobody lists themselves below 5'7'' i.e. ''Purito''. There is no way that cat is 5'7''.
@Erik
A winny Phinney would be cool. But how about Turgot winning for Europcar and France? Far-feteched I know, but 2nd last year and form in RVV and Scheldiprijs.
I'm sure you've all heard this, but The Motor took a little beater today in the Scheldeprijs. It will be interesting to hear how sore he is in the next couple of days and how that may affect his fitness heading into Sunday:
http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/04/news/cancellaras-paris-roubaix-threatened-by-scheldeprijs-crash_280611
Got to have a sneaky thought that one of teh Sky boys might come good this year. To be fair though, unless he's been playing a particularly clever long game Eddy the Boss doesn't seem to be where he was two years ago, so i'd have to back either Thomas or Stannard as placing in the top 5.
I can't see beyond Faboo winning either, but since his little fall in Scheldprijs, he might not be on top form for Sunday.
Going to be an interesting one.
@simonsaunders
Having caused G to fall off his bike at MSR and RVV by picking him at 1. I am afraid to put him there again - your choice of Stannard is an interesting one though, so long as he doesn't ender the V-drome in company
@Harminator
Ahem, Rule #47 may need some reviewing...
@Dr C
Agreed, if Stannard has any company he'll be out sprinted. He rode so well in MSR that I think given the right luck he could be well placed on the run into the velodrome. It's have to be a faboo, power TT effort to get there first though. Here's hoping.