Winning one Monument in a career is more than most Pros will ever achieve. Winning two in a season, nearly impossible. Winning two a week apart, it has been done more than a few times, by only the toughest of men. The Ronde and Roubaix both have cobbles but that is about all they have in common. Roubaix might be the harder one to win. The evil Lady Luck lurks on the Roubaix course. Flats and crashes are more likely on the farm tracks of Northern France, helpful team cars can be minutes away. Granted, Miss Luck does like to install errant road furniture and roll loose bidons in feed zones in Ronde van Vlaanderen, and that is a cause for concern for some riders.
A paceline, drafting, hiding behind teammates all fall apart on the cobbled secteurs of Roubaix. The ability to hit the cobbled secteurs with the throttle jammed fully open again and again and again is what separates the beasts from everyone else. Speed on these stones is only sustainable by having huge power and a Roger De Vlaeminck ability to ride over the cobbles. It’s like riding your bike through sand; only power keeps the bike moving forward. If you ease up, you don’t go. Tom Boonen is the perfect example of power and ability and he has a mighty sprint. Who could even stay on his wheel to arrive in the velodrome for a sprint? Oh Tommy, you will be missed this year.
Historical perspective? I don’t think so, not here, not now. Paris-Roubaix is coming on like a freight train. Fabian Cancellara is halfway to the double, again. And unless some Johan Vansummeren break gets away… how did Boonen do it last year? He didn’t have to worry about towing everyone up the road, he just hauled ass, dropped everyone and rode away solo. That should work for Fabian. It doesn’t work on the route into Sanremo but it will work on the way to Roubaix. No wee Simon Gerrans will be riding in his slipstream all the way to the velodrome.
Who you want to pick for second through fifth place in the VSP tomorrow is your business. This is a lock I’m telling you. Bet everything you have. That college tuition your Dad gave you to hand over to the bursar, double it down somewhere, this is easy money. This is the double.
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@Buck Rogers
It isn't like Phinney doesn't know the cobbles and velodrome. He placed well last year. He one twice for the juniors. His build up has been good. I've pretty much given up on Thor. Cancellara can't seem to keep the rubber side down. Sooooo.....
@Erik
Taylor Phinney's men's fragrance will be called "Bici," and it will blend together citrus and sage. True story.
@unversio
I think that image sums it up well, universio.
-Dinan
@Ron
I dunno, I'm pretty happy with the way mine sits...
(any excuse to lob that photo up again)
@Erik
Absolutely. He's been in my top 5 since I started trying to figure out P-R for this year and with Tomeke out, he's moved into my top 3. Still think Sparty will win it, though and I think that Thor will show up. But who knows? No one until Sunday. Cannot WAIT!!!
Cancellara, would bet my rent on it. Thor to win the sprint out of the chase group.
How the hell do I get to watch these in the US? Still eurosport subscription and watch it at 5am with a cold one? Hmmm. Pacific time sucks.
@Joe
It's on NBC Sports live in the am and highlights at night.
@mcsqueak
I'm sure we all knew it, but aero helmest are another marketing wank. I recommend Cycling Tips "The Secret Pro" series to enlighten us all on issues like this.
"Riders will say in public that they benefit from "marginal gains" with their aerodynamics, but really nobody cares. If you have the legs, then you'll win. Simple as that. No helmet is going to make a difference with all the other variables thrown in there."
http://www.cyclingtips.com.au/2013/04/the-secret-pro-the-spring-classics/
I really can't see past Faboo, but if he is feeling rough after his 2 wee tumbles then I think Stannard or Phinney could be in with a shout. Would like Stannard to do well, but as mentioned above, he would have to enter the velodrome alone to stand a chance!
@Bianchi Denti
Thanks for that link. I love Cycling Tips Blog but always forget about it.
And I absolutely agree about those dumb aero helmets. Who won last weekend? Not someone in an aero helmet.
Who won the week before that at Gent? Not someone in aero helmet. *slams fist on table*