Velominati Super Prestige: 2011 Le Tour de France
While a good number of Velominati get all uppity around May and make rash statements like their preferred Grand Tour is the Giro d’Italia, because it has more and bigger climbs, beautiful white roads and crazy tifosi, there’s no denying that Le Tour de France is the real grandaddy of them all.
Admit it, July trumps May every time.
Maybe it’s because of the greater media attention, or the fact that there’s bound to be a controversy, but I for one look forward to this time of year with a fervour that has myself and others residing in the lower half of the world consuming inhuman amounts of caffeine and staving off sleep deprivation for 21 days on end, without question or cause for concern. It’s all about the bike (race) and nothing else really gets a look in. Job? Ah, we can do that blurry-eyed and with concentration levels that are probably below safe standards if operating heavy machinery. Or even computers. In fact, operating a computer becomes the central task of the day, as we check results, reports, the topography and distance of the next stage, and of course our VSP standings.
Which brings us to the Blue Riband event on the 2011 Velominati Super Prestige; Le Tour de France. Who will be resplendent in the Maillot Jaune after three weeks of high-pressure tipping, rest-day swaps and bonus stage picks? Have we seen the last of Steampunk’s yellow reign of terror? It’s time to peak, to climb well for your weight, and move Sur La Plaque to the top of the VSP. Study the guidelines (with a grain of salt, as whatever we say here overrides the guide, so ask if you’re not sure), respect the Piti Principle, and enjoy the next three weeks of the greatest show on earth. As usual, get your picks in by 5am Pacific time on Saturday morning. If you wait until the last moment and bugger it up, don’t come crying, just wait until the first rest day with all the others who pulled a Delgado.
Brett’s Take:
As a Keeper, my own tips don’t count to any jerseys or prizes, so this Tour I think I’ll tip with my heart rather than my head; it’s let me down enough this season anyway, so any ‘logic’ or ‘knowledge’ is to be discarded and replaced with ’emotion’ and ‘taking a stab in the dark’. In fact, I might even target the KOM this time around, try and get in some long breakaways and pick up points over the smaller cols while none of the big contenders are paying any real attention. Yeah, channel the spirit of JaJa, Reeshard and the Chicken. Better get me some juice.
Taking the heart over head approach, I have to say that this is going to be the year of an upset. It’s there for Cadelephant to take. The cards are all falling for him; Cont Of The Highest Odor will fade in the last week, spent from his Giro and without a reliable supply of prime beef to call upon; Grimplette, while he may have been foxing in Switzerland, just doesn’t have the firepower to match it with Cuddles or COTHO against the clock, and hasn’t got the mental capacity to attack in the mountains. Wiggins, Gesink, Grimpelder… they’ll be fighting for scraps.
It’s a three horse race, this one, but at last count there’s only three steps on a podium.
Marko’s Take:
Recently on these pages we’ve at once lamented the loss of the all-rounder GC contender and derided the formulaic predictability that “well-rounded” riders in the modern peloton employ to win races. All the names at the top of the Giants of the Road list, however, excelled at one thing, winning the biggest sporting event in the world. But it isn’t climbing prowess, time trialling efficiency, tactical sense, and winning ability alone that endear riders to us. If it was it would be way easier and really boring to be a cycling fan. So what is the difference between a guy like say, LeMan and a guy like Armstrong? Panache. What we’ve lost isn’t a type of rider but a style of rider. Rather what we’ve lost is panache. If, in the modern day, being a douchenozzle or belladonna means panache, so be it. But if doping scandals and bro-mances make you yawn, keep in mind there is a lot of bike racing going on in le Grand Boucle.
So I ask, where’s the panache as far as GC contenders go? Cuddles (may have blown his panache wad last year), Le Petit Grimpeur (no panache), Sammy Sanchez (panacheicito), Basso (panached-out), Horner (Mcpanache), JVDB (panache-a-be), CVDV (pa-crash), Veino (panachenozzle), and Ryder (trying to get all the Canadian panache that Don Cherry has been hogging for the last 30 years). For me, other than Cuddles, Veino, and Ryder it’s hard to get really excited about any of the GC contenders. But alas, I will not vote solely with my heart like my Aussie bro in New Zealand. I will do my best to garner points for no other reason than pride as I don’t get shit for winning either.
So then, now that I’ve gotten all pessimistic about the GC, what am I looking forward to? Panache, fucktards. I wanna see Faboo tow Frandy through the TTT for Leotard Schleck (thanks Dr C) and then make some perfect amount of dumb remark afterward. I wanna see Cavenisgrowingonmedish win some sprints. I wanna see Farrar beat the Manx Mouth in some sprints or cry trying. I wanna believe in the Rainbow Jersey again. I wanna see if Tomeke still has what it takes. I wanna see Jens hurt EVERYBODY. I wanna see some Russian or Spanish dude I’ve never heard of have the ride of his life and shed some tears on the podium, and I wanna see Gilbert on a long solo break on his birthday get himself a stage win and maybe even the yellow jersey for a bit.
The reason this race is so cool is there are so many races within the race. Sure, you betcha, get drawn into to GC drama but don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees. There’s a shit-ton gonna happen in the next three weeks and it’s gonna be good.
Gianni’s Take:
Burned from the all too predicable days of Pharmy, I just don’t care that much about the yellow jersey, Contador or a Schleck – ahhhh, who cares, skinny little bastards. I’m all in for the drama hidden within each day’s race. A stage win in the Tour can make a rider’s career and every stage has unscripted drama: Stuey O’Grady finishing the stage within the time limit, riding in from 100km out with a broken collar bone. Or Magnus Backstead riding in by himself, dropped in the small mountains, finishing beyond the time limit, his number peeled off his jersey and he is ruined. These things happen every day in the Tour.
I like a good spoiler, like Eros Poli on Mount Ventoux, or the spoiler small break that stays away when the last 40km is a high speed tailwind run, ruining a day for the sprinters. I like Rik Verbruggen, flat back, so aero on his bike, hauling ass, a crazy solo bid for glory. I want to see more of that. I would be thrilled to see one of the Garmin roulers win a stage, and I’ll be thrilled if HTC doesn’t win the TTT.
I can schleckulate about a few things: unless Contador and Cavendish get their front wheels tangled up together resulting in a horrendous career threatening crash, both Andy Schleck and Tyler Farrar are doomed. I’m sorry, Andy can’t go fast unless it’s a steep hill (up) and no one is as good a sprinter as Cav, by a lot. Then again, if my schleckulations were worth anything, I wouldn’t be down in the boggy hole that is the low end of the VSP results.
Frank’s Take:
Every year, it happens. Every single year. It has a bitter taste, Disappointment. It sits on the front of your tongue like a small black weight that is surprisingly heavy for its size. Even though you’re not swallowing it, the taste spreads throughout, slowly – into your jaws first, then the rest of your being.
With one exception, I have never had my chips down for a rider who ended up winning – not since 1990, when I was all-in for Greg LeMond. 1991-1995 was Indurain: I favored first Bugno, then Rominger. 1996: Virenque. 1997: Virenque. 1998: Pantani; it was a long shot, but the awesome little dude pulled it off for once in my life. 1999: Zulle. 2000-2004: Ullrich. 2005-2006: Basso. 2007: The Chicken. 2008: Frank Schleck. 2009-2010: The Grimplette. But I continue to favor the dark horse because I know that when I am redeemed, it will be glorious beyond articulation.
This will be that year. Not because I will change my tactic, but because this is the one for les Fréres Grimpeur. It’s a hilly enough race with enough uphill finishes – we all know the skinny boys have a challenge when the road points down. (You’d really think that with all that practicing they do going uphill that they’d occasionally get a chance to practice going down one as well, but those boys descend like first-year amateurs.) Bertie blew the guns at a very difficult Giro and all the Spanish Beef in the world can’t help you recoup from that kind of effort in time for a similarly difficult Tour. Cuddles is a pipe dream borne from the understandably optimistic thoughts from our antipodal brothers and sisters in Oz and Newz. Wiggo, Vande Velde, Gesink, and Van den Broek will all learn how hard it is to pull out a good Tour ride for a second (or first) time when the pressure is truly on.
I’ve also vowed not to get caught up in my propensity to dwell on the fact that Contador should not be in the race. The fact that a rider who failed a dope test in last year’s Tour has been allowed to start is a reflection of the ineffectiveness of Cycling’s governing bodies, not on Bertie. True, I hate him and would be happy to see him not start, but if I were in his shoes, I admit that would start if I was allowed to. And, lets face it: Andy’s win will mean more when it comes with the defeat of Alberto than with a nonstart.
Phew, I was glad Vino didn’t make it !
Over post-ride breakfast this morning I was emphatically offering the opinion that Vino was a spent force.
Much as I have liked him in the past, and would not begrudge him a stage win, I don’t want to see him in the maillot jaune.
By the way, Gilbert is reminding me an awful lot of Sean Kelly – able to get over some lumps, fast guns in a sprint. I think it was ’89 the last time I saw a Green jersey contender dishing it out in the hills.
Really liking the change-up to the scoring for the points jersey.
@frank
The badger looked to have maximum respect for the god of thunder, harking back to riders who did it all
Is it too late for me to swap out Horner for, say, Cuntador?
@Steampunk
Merckx, he did it!!!! What a god.
@Jeff in PetroMetro
Top ten or keeping this lead until Paris?
This spring, I thought the God of Thunder clouds had blown away and been replaced by puny, pale rainbows, but I’d forgotten that where there’s a rainbow, clouds can’t be too far off.
And Phil Gil…totally killer.
@Netraam
All the GC contenders will have to ride extremely defensively for Thor to get to Paris in yellow. He has only a ONE SECOND advantage over Good Cadel.
Contador is such a wild card considering his Giro win and his pretty big time deficit. I still think Contador has the ability to get a lot of that time back. Especially if he attacks a GC rider with a technical as he did to Andy last year. And I wouldn’t trust Contador in the feed zones. The guy is really slimy with regard to unwritten rules.
I can see Thor doing a better ITT than both Schlecks. My daughter can descend better than both Schlecks.
Thor’s also had the huge advantage of being protected for most of the first week. But I can’t see him hanging with the GC guys over the really massive climbs day in and day out.
I think Danielson and CVV will both overtake Thor on GC once the roads point to the heavens. That will put Thor in a super-domestique role which is a stunningly taxing responsibility.
All that said, with a bit of luck, I can see an inspired Top Ten.
@Netraam
Not a hope. I think today has been an incredible success. He’ll be pleased with himself””it was an amazing effort to hang with the climbers. But I don’t think he’ll be able to keep it up and will start bleeding minutes over the next week. That shouldn’t detract, though, from today’s phenomenal accomplishment.
Holy Merckx! Cuddles takes third today and couldn’t get an extra second to beat Thor. Wouldn’t want to be around the BMC bus.
Oh, that maillot jaune looks pretty good. Thanks frank.
@Sprider
Lets hope they don’t give him any water bottles
Yes, I fully believe in the Rainbow again. Sorry if I disparaged you, Thor. And don’t you think it has to be, at least partly, because you started wearing black bibs again?
@Marko
Well said!
@Jeff in PetroMetro
@Steampunk
Just saying that if Thor goes in the attack in mountain stages, he can sneak a stage victory and if he hangs on like he does now he’ll actually keep that jersey for a long time.
If he keeps climbing this well for his weight, that is. How heavy IS Thor actually?
That rainbow cool-aid must be potent stuff. Sure Thor held on today to finish on a 4th category climb, but just look at tomorrows race profile; 8 categorized climbs, 3 of which are category 2 and 2 of which are category 3. and that’s not even getting into the real high mountains yet.
@Netraam
In 1994 Eros Poli, another rider the size of Thor, won the Mont Ventoux stage…
@Marko
Yep. Black bibs.
Must say, it’s a pleasure having lunch with y’all today. Smoked ham and swiss on rye and a glass of Chimay Red Label. It will be an even more pleasant afternoon, I think.
ding ding!
@Pedale.Forchetta
Thor is 83 kilograms. Tony Martin 75. Eros Poli more than 90. This numbers indicate that Thor CAN actually win a mountain stage.
Hi Frank, need to change Horner (DNS tomorrow) to Basso.
@earnest
No kidding! I’m really glad to see him back on top of the points competition, but it’s kind of a shame he has to trade out jerseys – in that head-to-toe Belgian flag kit he radiates more concentrated V than any ten other riders in the race.
Tee Jay in the Dotty Jumper? Not sure how I feel about that considering the history of of that jersey.
@Netraam
If he can hang on tomorrow (and I’m not sure he can, despite today’s fine showing), he should have the jersey until Thursday. He will finish at least 10 minutes down on Luz Ardiden, no question.
@Pedale.Forchetta
That stage wasn’t your typical Ventoux stage though, as it didn’t finish on top of the Mont. Poli had over 20 minutes gap when he hit the climb but lost nearly all of that by the summit, and the chasers couldn’t catch him on the fast downhill run into Carpentras. I’m sure his 90kg helped there! I doubt anyone is going to give Thor much leeway heading into the big climbs if he’s in or still near yellow, so I can’t see anything similar occurring.
@heath
+1
Ding Ding indeed.
This is the UCI prototype for next years race bike to ensure an even playing field.
Note the carefully considered integrated race radio.
Thor looks more Pro on that bike than most of us will ever be.
I am absolutely loving this tour.
Thor, Giblets and Cuddles mixing it up every stage.
And I must say for entertainment value alone, watching Roman Feillieu sprint at a cadence of about 250 is enervating.
@heath
I wasn’t able to watch the stage today, but, GEEZ, can you guys imagine what Thor could’ve done on a proper road bike? Or even w/his saddle a few ticks higher?
Garmin-Cervelo need to rethink their priorities. I mean, I know they are really shooting for clean riders, but I think they’re taking it a bit far with the fenders. At the very least, they need to put their new prototypes (frameset and computer–where’s the display, anyway?) through a few more field tests before letting the maillot jaune take it for a mountain stage. That might be the least-aero frameset Cervelo has made in a few years.
C’mon, Mr. Vaughters.
@earnest, @heath, @mouse,
Which of you is paying for the Guinness I just sprayed over my MacBook? The computer is covered but the insurance won’t pay for the beverage.
Totally stealing that image for wallpaper.
too late to change? if not…
VSP PICKS:
1. evans
2. contador
3. a schleck
4. kloden
5. van den broeck
I’ll have Wiggins out and Gilbert in. Is this how I make the change?
@Sprider
Yeah Ok, I’ve got it.
Just send me your account details.
I’ve also got a friend in east Africa that is looking for a place to deposit $10,000,000.00. Can you help?
Contador down again! And completely isolated. WOW!
@Marcus
450g Eye fillet in muesett! Offset weight in back pockets…
That looks bad.
Oh Fuck.
Bad, Bad crash.
Vino carried back up the hill looking like having broken a leg(?)or back injury.
Dave Zabriskie also down not moving anywhere quickly.
Jurgen Van den Brouk and Vino abandoned.
Van den broucke and Vino out. GC contenders dropping like flies!!
@mouse
The way he wasn’t moving his legs as they were carrying him, all I was thinking was “don’t move him, his back is fucked”. Apparently it’s his right knee according to reports…wish the TV wouldn’t keep focussing on VDB, he looks ruined.
Hoogeland loves a breakaway doesn’t he?
I’m hearing Vino w/ broken pelvis, and Zabriskie w/ broken hand.
@Mikeweb
Vino broken elbow as well.
JVDB Broken collarbone.
And Van Den Broeck with a broken shoulder? Geez…
Damn, how hard did Vino hit the tree in order to break his bone and pelvis?
I’ll miss seeing him race these next two weeks.
Woah, Thor and Gilbert are riding pals? Didn’t know that. Incredible. How awesome is it if your riding pal can wear the rings and not be breaking a Rule?
Twitter is alive with the Contador-Karpets incident.
If you haven’t seen it, Karpets appears to just drop his shoulder into Contador and push him off. Even more surprising the Saxo-Bank rider ahead looks around, sees Contador coming off and rides on without another backward glance.
Very strange. If it is what it looks like it suggest Contador is persona non grata for a large part of the peloton and even his team.
Good God! Karpets is looking a bit weak after the France TV car took out the escape group. What the hell??
Bloody hell – now a TV car has taken out Flecha and another rider who went flying into a fence. Incredible.
Wouldn’t mind so much if their coverage wasn’t so fucking awful.
Hoogerland was the other rider.
Dear god that was scary.
insane stuff.
I’m stressed out just watching this Tour.
The focus of these guys is amazing, especially those who aim to do their best riding at the Tour. Spending the rest of the year preparing to be on form for three weeks is quite impressive. Beyond the physical skills, that takes a lot of mental fitness and discipline.