Categories: Keepers TourNostalgiaThe HardmenTradition

Cobbled Classics 2013 Forecast: Hardman’s Valmanac

As many of you know, one of my specialties is examining events, imagining trends in them, and then predicting future events by painting with broad strokes based on those findings. I find this approach particularly effective when it pertains to topics of which I know less than nothing. In many ways, this is the same thing meteorologists do, so in that sense it is very fitting that my current prediction is for the weather of the 2013 Cobbled Classics.

I consider Het Volk to be a harbinger of what is to come for the major classics coming about a month later. By ignoring all data points that don’t support my assumptions, my study has conclusively demonstrated the following points:

Rare is the case when a rider wins Het Volk and also wins de Ronde or Roubaix.
Weather can’t hold a peak any better than a rider can, apparently; dry weather in Het Volk means wet weather in April and vice versa.
Riders who race Het Volk in their Flandrian Best generally perform better in the monuments.
Racing to the win in too-long a pair of knickers is a specter of failure for future events.
Racing with an upturned cycling cap brim will yield a season fraught with spectacular highs and lows.

In light of this, it was with great relief that I noticed that while the weather was cold for Het Volk, it was also dry. Which conclusively shows that the bergs in de Ronde and the trench in Roubaix will be coated in heaps of slippery mud. Thank Merckx, too; it’s been too many years of dry weather for my taste. For those of you smart enough to sign up for Keepers Tour, this will be epic. And yes, I know its not called Het Volk anymore. (We have a few open spots left on the Tour, so get in while the getting’s good.)

frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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View Comments

Dr C says:

Mar 3 2013 at 12:41 am

@G'rilla

I predict a mudbath this year and you have picked the right rubber - allow yourself the last laugh dude
Dr C says:

Mar 3 2013 at 12:43 am

Cannondale seem to have themselves a lethal duo of badboys this Spring, I sense they are going to do a Gilbert 2011 on everyone - hope Faboo gets some of the scraps, but can't see anyone beating them in this sort of form
huffalotpuffalot says:

Mar 3 2013 at 6:01 am

@Chris

Fuck it, lets have some snow too.

That is a picture that just calls like a siren, snow, mud and glistening guns powering along and propelling the rotation of the earth just that bit faster.
Dan_R says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:12 am

@RedRanger thanks. Saw the pics on FB too. That's some nice looking bit of trail. We got snow this morning, er more accurately are getting snow. Funny. Open a shop, get less cycling done. Although, I am only doing four hours today.

@G'rilla. Good legs today!
G'rilla says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:41 am

@Dr C

@G'rilla

I predict a mudbath this year and you have picked the right rubber - allow yourself the last laugh dude

That's the spirit!
frank says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:49 am

@G'rilla

@RedRanger Nothin' like a bit of dirt.

I rode a brief hour in hail today. My favorite part was about 1km of urban singletrack.

A highlight of the summer Cogal was your attack on the dirt side-trail on the way to the brewery. You can take the rider out of the CX, but you can't take the CX out of the rider!
frank says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:50 am

@Dr C

Cannondale seem to have themselves a lethal duo of badboys this Spring, I sense they are going to do a Gilbert 2011 on everyone - hope Faboo gets some of the scraps, but can't see anyone beating them in this sort of form

I predict Faboo for Roubaix and Sagan for RVV. EPIC.

My boy Boonen will be off peak but will be close.
frank says:

Mar 3 2013 at 9:00 am

As for the winner of the ugliest kit award...
Russ says:

Mar 3 2013 at 9:05 am

@G'rilla Enjoy your race, stage early Burn 1 "V" match at the start and the rest will work it's self out. Hmmm just looked at the date of your post im little late on this one.
Russ says:

Mar 3 2013 at 9:16 am

@RedRanger I almost forgot what the southwest looked like. Back in the 80's my back yard was the Superstition Mountains with some awesome trails / fire roads. You could go for hours. Nice Photos