Cobbled Classics 2013 Forecast: Hardman’s Valmanac

As many of you know, one of my specialties is examining events, imagining trends in them, and then predicting future events by painting with broad strokes based on those findings. I find this approach particularly effective when it pertains to topics of which I know less than nothing. In many ways, this is the same thing meteorologists do, so in that sense it is very fitting that my current prediction is for the weather of the 2013 Cobbled Classics.

I consider Het Volk to be a harbinger of what is to come for the major classics coming about a month later. By ignoring all data points that don’t support my assumptions, my study has conclusively demonstrated the following points:

  • Rare is the case when a rider wins Het Volk and also wins de Ronde or Roubaix.
  • Weather can’t hold a peak any better than a rider can, apparently; dry weather in Het Volk means wet weather in April and vice versa.
  • Riders who race Het Volk in their Flandrian Best generally perform better in the monuments.
  • Racing to the win in too-long a pair of knickers is a specter of failure for future events.
  • Racing with an upturned cycling cap brim will yield a season fraught with spectacular highs and lows.

In light of this, it was with great relief that I noticed that while the weather was cold for Het Volk, it was also dry. Which conclusively shows that the bergs in de Ronde and the trench in Roubaix will be coated in heaps of slippery mud. Thank Merckx, too; it’s been too many years of dry weather for my taste. For those of you smart enough to sign up for Keepers Tour, this will be epic. And yes, I know its not called Het Volk anymore. (We have a few open spots left on the Tour, so get in while the getting’s good.)

frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

View Comments

  • @G'rilla Shame, I was looking forward to seeing that new bike. Fat tyres would have been taking things a bit far and it wouldn't have been fair to spoil Brett and Frank's party.

  • @Dan_R

    @Tobin
    Yeah, with a name like Café Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.

    You have Deda frames?!?

    For future VSPs we should do some kind of betting on whether or not the Schlecklette will finish.  At the very least, free points!

  • @Deakus

    Hooray for a snow riddled slushy Roubaix! If only mainstream TV would televise this epic!

    Praise be to Merckx, SBS in Aus. will be televising all the spring classics in their entirety.

    I'll have to delve deep into "the suitcase of caffeine". Can't wait.

  • @G'rilla

    MTB XC race #2 tomorrow.

    What's the etiquette/strategy for passing someone on a course that's 100% singletrack? Ask verbally? Go around on a hill when they slow down?

    Best way is to ask/suggest "Passing on your left/right, when you're ready."  Typically this would happen on a climb where you would power past, or just before a descent.

    Generally, just being immediately behind someone for any period of time should give them the hint that they should give way.  Communication is the key though, and as per the MTBA rules, the rider in front has the right to refuse the pass if they feel it would endanger them in any way.

  • @DerHoggz

    @Dan_R

    @Tobin
    Yeah, with a name like Café Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.

    You have Deda frames?!?

    For future VSPs we should do some kind of betting on whether or not the Schlecklette will finish. At the very least, free points!

    But that's like giving away free points.

  • @El Segundo

    @Deakus

    Hooray for a snow riddled slushy Roubaix! If only mainstream TV would televise this epic!

    Praise be to Merckx, SBS in Aus. will be televising all the spring classics in their entirety.

    I'll have to delve deep into "the suitcase of caffeine". Can't wait.

    That does depend on where across the country you're situated...they'll be live if you're in the eastern states, central or WA & you'll be taking big chunks out of your internet data usage streaming it because they don't want to eat in to their normal schedule.

  • @Gianni

    Who is bored and needs some video? The sound track is most insane. Enjoy.

    Love the choice of 'Bad to the Bone' for le Blaireau!

  • @G'rilla

    @RedRanger

    @G'rilla you may ruin their trip man.

    No trips will be ruined. I've decided to bring the same equipment as last year: Cervelo and 25mm clinchers.

    You are straying from the path, my son! We obviously need to ride together soon. Tubulars, 25mm. Ti SEX frame (thats how I assume CX is pronounced, no?).  Bring the Dugasts as spares incase its chaos. Easy is as easy goes.

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