Cobbled Classics 2013 Forecast: Hardman’s Valmanac
As many of you know, one of my specialties is examining events, imagining trends in them, and then predicting future events by painting with broad strokes based on those findings. I find this approach particularly effective when it pertains to topics of which I know less than nothing. In many ways, this is the same thing meteorologists do, so in that sense it is very fitting that my current prediction is for the weather of the 2013 Cobbled Classics.
I consider Het Volk to be a harbinger of what is to come for the major classics coming about a month later. By ignoring all data points that don’t support my assumptions, my study has conclusively demonstrated the following points:
- Rare is the case when a rider wins Het Volk and also wins de Ronde or Roubaix.
- Weather can’t hold a peak any better than a rider can, apparently; dry weather in Het Volk means wet weather in April and vice versa.
- Riders who race Het Volk in their Flandrian Best generally perform better in the monuments.
- Racing to the win in too-long a pair of knickers is a specter of failure for future events.
- Racing with an upturned cycling cap brim will yield a season fraught with spectacular highs and lows.
In light of this, it was with great relief that I noticed that while the weather was cold for Het Volk, it was also dry. Which conclusively shows that the bergs in de Ronde and the trench in Roubaix will be coated in heaps of slippery mud. Thank Merckx, too; it’s been too many years of dry weather for my taste. For those of you smart enough to sign up for Keepers Tour, this will be epic. And yes, I know its not called Het Volk anymore. (We have a few open spots left on the Tour, so get in while the getting’s good.)
Predictions?
Sagan will be a thorn in Tomeke’s side in Flanders. Fabooo? Thor? Sagan? Boonen? GIlbert? Who will dominate? Or will it be mini-phinney for Roubaix and Sagan for Vlaanderen and the old buggahs behind?
I want some answers, FFS!
Stormy classics weather is even more reason to use appropriate equipment.
And by “appropriate”, I mean the set of beautiful Dugasts that I just spent $250 on at the LBS (plus 10% tax).
Speaking of Roubaix and the LBS…I got to check out Cafe Roubaix today on opening day. Shop is looking great!!!
@G’rilla
Cross season is over. You should have asked for a discount.
@Nate I peak in 7 months.
Crap only a month to make the transition from delusional middle aged fat man with shaved legs to cycling god – can I pull it off?
Fuck it, lets have some snow too.
I’ll have my kilt – I’ll be fine
@the Engine
Mrs. Engine is a very lucky woman! Haha
@G’rilla
You’re taking the piss, right? You’re not riding those at KT?
Rememeber what Museeuw said about his full suspension road bike for Roubaix; it was great on the cobbles but for the 50km of cobbles, there are 200km of tarmac.
Those are stunners, though. You’ll love them!
nice to see that you refer to the race as Het Volk.
@frank I’m about to order Continental Gatorskin tubulars in 25mm for the KT. Does that pass?
http://www.biketiresdirect.com/product/continental-sprinter-gatorskin-tubular-tire
@Tobin and all, after a few strollers into the shop to check it out, in walks a fellow Velominatus, Tobin and thus becomes my first paying walk-in customer! A big thanks for that. We drank coffee and joked about peaking in two months, discussed a Calgary area Cogal, etc. Most people that dropped by got the idea of the place right away. The last customer of the day was a buddy from Edmonton on his way to the mountains, being a former national track champ, he was impressed. Great ways to start and end the day!
More hijinx to come as I have some fairly priceless bits of memorabilia coming in soon AND coming later in the day, a new personal link to – RdV! I just about gave birth to an ostrich. I don’t know what that means, but giving birth to an OSTRICH!
@Dan_R Congrats, Dan!
@Gianni
If Faboo is in good health it’s hard to look past him at that time of year he has proved to be devastating. Sagan is such a special rider if any one in the peloton can give those two, Tomeke & Boo, a run for the money come The Baix & the Ronde it will be him.
Hooray for a snow riddled slushy Roubaix! If only mainstream TV would televise this epic!
@G’rilla
A most grievous breach of Rule #58, my good man. Get thee to thy LBS!
Mud spackled warriors with goatees of filth and phlegm. Yes, please. For RVV, occasional hail will suffice.
In order to Look Pro in all aspects, the V Keepers on KT2013 will follow a Pro diet and will be drinking no beer.
Or maybe just one each in order to match the yearly consumption of Johnny Hoogerland.
Attendees will make up for the difference to keep the average up.
@G’rilla
Thanks – no bikes sold yet, but we have been getting a lot of positive reviews so far!
MTB XC race #2 tomorrow.
What’s the etiquette/strategy for passing someone on a course that’s 100% singletrack? Ask verbally? Go around on a hill when they slow down?
@G’rilla you’re a beast mate. Good fucking luck. And enjoy. I have no suggestion on your question. Do we get some rad pictures like we did of the CX races?
@Dan_R the place is looking very impressive from what I can see on Facebook
@RedRanger Last race I was in my warmups. Hopefully I’ll get better pictures this time.
I got an hour on the trail before work today. it was a pretty techy trail for my level. I almost wished I had a trail bike for the day. It was a nice day, the scenery couldn’t be beat.
(this is not a technical part)
@RedRanger is this AZ?
@RedRanger Nothin’ like a bit of dirt.
I rode a brief hour in hail today. My favorite part was about 1km of urban singletrack.
@Tobin yes sir. Tucson to be specific. We have some great trail systems on all sides of the city. This place is about 10 minutes from the highway. on the other side of town is Fantasy Island, a MTB only trail(26miles of it)
FI trailhead picture taken from my truck:
Notice the “bike only” sign.
@G’rilla I’m pretty much riding the Niner exclusivity right now. I ride #2 with class mates on Friday, very very casual thing. #1 is getting neglected big time.
@RedRanger Yeah, I’m actually thinking of selling my rain bike because I can’t think of any situation where I would ride it.
@G’rilla
I predict a mudbath this year and you have picked the right rubber – allow yourself the last laugh dude
Cannondale seem to have themselves a lethal duo of badboys this Spring, I sense they are going to do a Gilbert 2011 on everyone – hope Faboo gets some of the scraps, but can’t see anyone beating them in this sort of form
@Chris
That is a picture that just calls like a siren, snow, mud and glistening guns powering along and propelling the rotation of the earth just that bit faster.
@RedRanger thanks. Saw the pics on FB too. That’s some nice looking bit of trail. We got snow this morning, er more accurately are getting snow. Funny. Open a shop, get less cycling done. Although, I am only doing four hours today.
@G’rilla. Good legs today!
@Dr C
That’s the spirit!
@G’rilla
A highlight of the summer Cogal was your attack on the dirt side-trail on the way to the brewery. You can take the rider out of the CX, but you can’t take the CX out of the rider!
@Dr C
I predict Faboo for Roubaix and Sagan for RVV. EPIC.
My boy Boonen will be off peak but will be close.
As for the winner of the ugliest kit award…
@G’rilla Enjoy your race, stage early Burn 1 “V” match at the start and the rest will work it’s self out. Hmmm just looked at the date of your post im little late on this one.
@RedRanger I almost forgot what the southwest looked like. Back in the 80’s my back yard was the Superstition Mountains with some awesome trails / fire roads. You could go for hours. Nice Photos
@Dan_R
nice dan,congrats on opening day.cheers m8.
@RedRanger some days I loathe living in Canada…today is one of them…
@frank
It’s a tough call between RadioSchleck and the smurf costumes the Astana guys wear…
@Russ if you can get passed the summer heat, it’s really beautiful.
@G’rilla
Laugh now, because if you turn up with those tyres, they won’t be seeing any contact with cobbles.
I don’t know what would be more fun: riding 32mm of cotton, rubber, and latex over the cobbles, or watching Brett and Frank go nuts for a week because of it.
@G’rilla you may ruin their trip man.
@Tobin
Yeah, with a name like Café Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.
@RedRanger
No trips will be ruined. I’ve decided to bring the same equipment as last year: Cervelo and 25mm clinchers.
@G’rilla not gonna lie. I’m very glad to hear that. Although I enjoyed the back and forth every time you mentioned the equipment you were taking.