Categories: Keepers TourNostalgiaThe HardmenTradition

Cobbled Classics 2013 Forecast: Hardman’s Valmanac

As many of you know, one of my specialties is examining events, imagining trends in them, and then predicting future events by painting with broad strokes based on those findings. I find this approach particularly effective when it pertains to topics of which I know less than nothing. In many ways, this is the same thing meteorologists do, so in that sense it is very fitting that my current prediction is for the weather of the 2013 Cobbled Classics.

I consider Het Volk to be a harbinger of what is to come for the major classics coming about a month later. By ignoring all data points that don’t support my assumptions, my study has conclusively demonstrated the following points:

Rare is the case when a rider wins Het Volk and also wins de Ronde or Roubaix.
Weather can’t hold a peak any better than a rider can, apparently; dry weather in Het Volk means wet weather in April and vice versa.
Riders who race Het Volk in their Flandrian Best generally perform better in the monuments.
Racing to the win in too-long a pair of knickers is a specter of failure for future events.
Racing with an upturned cycling cap brim will yield a season fraught with spectacular highs and lows.

In light of this, it was with great relief that I noticed that while the weather was cold for Het Volk, it was also dry. Which conclusively shows that the bergs in de Ronde and the trench in Roubaix will be coated in heaps of slippery mud. Thank Merckx, too; it’s been too many years of dry weather for my taste. For those of you smart enough to sign up for Keepers Tour, this will be epic. And yes, I know its not called Het Volk anymore. (We have a few open spots left on the Tour, so get in while the getting’s good.)

frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

Next Anatomy Of A Photo: The Gents Of Wevelgem »

Previous « Velominati Super Prestige: L'Eroica/Strade Bianche 2013

View Comments

El Segundo says:

Mar 3 2013 at 7:47 pm

@Mikael Liddy

@El Segundo

@Deakus

Hooray for a snow riddled slushy Roubaix! If only mainstream TV would televise this epic!

Praise be to Merckx, SBS in Aus. will be televising all the spring classics in their entirety.

I'll have to delve deep into "the suitcase of caffeine". Can't wait.

That does depend on where across the country you're situated...they'll be live if you're in the eastern states, central or WA & you'll be taking big chunks out of your internet data usage streaming it because they don't want to eat in to their normal schedule.

Thanks for the tip Mikael, it seemed too good to be true. I'm in SA (Victor) so looks like I'll be burning up my data allowance. Still, it'll be worth it.
Mikael Liddy says:

Mar 3 2013 at 7:49 pm

@El Segundo yup, the Cycling Central stream is quite good so they do make up for it.
brett says:

Mar 3 2013 at 7:54 pm

@G'rilla

I don't know what would be more fun: riding 32mm of cotton, rubber, and latex over the cobbles, or watching Brett and Frank go nuts for a week because of it.

Definitely the latter...
Marcus says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:04 pm

@frank

@DerHoggz

@Dan_R

@Tobin
Yeah, with a name like CafÃ© Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.

You have Deda frames?!?

For future VSPs we should do some kind of betting on whether or not the Schlecklette will finish. At the very least, free points!

But that's like giving away free points.

Have you seen the Schleck Clock?
DerHoggz says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:52 pm

@Marcus

@frank

@DerHoggz

@Dan_R

@Tobin
Yeah, with a name like CafÃ© Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.

You have Deda frames?!?

For future VSPs we should do some kind of betting on whether or not the Schlecklette will finish. At the very least, free points!

But that's like giving away free points.

Have you seen the Schleck Clock?

Wow, although for some reason I thought he finished some smaller race this season? As to the free points, there is a small non-zero chance he finishes something, maybe gets caught in Jens's chain and gets dragged across the line protesting.
sthilzy says:

Mar 3 2013 at 8:56 pm

@Marcus

@frank

@DerHoggz

@Dan_R

@Tobin
Yeah, with a name like CafÃ© Roubaix, I felt obligated to open for a few hours today.

You have Deda frames?!?

For future VSPs we should do some kind of betting on whether or not the Schlecklette will finish. At the very least, free points!

But that's like giving away free points.

Have you seen the Schleck Clock?

STOP THE CLOCK! Andy did finish one! Schleck happy to have finished the GP di Camaiore

"Before the start of the GP di Camaiore, new team manager Luca Guercilena, who replaced the ousted Johan Bruyneel, indicated that Schleck has been struggling psychologically after his injury, the suspension of brother FrÃ¤nk for doping, and the consequent lack of motivation and desire to train."
G'rilla says:

Mar 3 2013 at 9:54 pm

If you can account for each and every bruise incurred during today's race, you're not riding your MTB hard enough.

What a painful hour! By the end, my arms were as tired as my legs.

Let's do it again next week!
the Engine says:

Mar 4 2013 at 1:32 am

@frank

@G'rilla

@RedRanger

@G'rilla you may ruin their trip man.

No trips will be ruined. I've decided to bring the same equipment as last year: Cervelo and 25mm clinchers.

You are straying from the path, my son! We obviously need to ride together soon. Tubulars, 25mm. Ti SEX frame (thats how I assume CX is pronounced, no?). Bring the Dugasts as spares incase its chaos. Easy is as easy goes.

Promise not to laugh at my GP 4000's?
Dr C says:

Mar 4 2013 at 3:57 am

@G'rilla

If you can account for each and every bruise incurred during today's race, you're not riding your MTB hard enough.

What a painful hour! By the end, my arms were as tired as my legs.

Let's do it again next week!

I did a MTBX race yesterday - 1 hour on my 29er - thought it was open trails, but turned out to be fully technical - bloody hell am I sore today - like a different sport - 1 hour of anaerobic pain - sadly I didn't finish, as my daughter sprained her ankle watching me race, halfway round the last lap, and I had to stop to attend to her - wimmin, ruin everything (sorry V-ladies, sweeping unfair generalisation format acknowledged)
Dr C says:

Mar 4 2013 at 3:58 am

@the Engine

ride what you like chap, I put a set of Vittoria Open Pave on last year and they flatted on the first set of cobbles last year - stray sniper shot I think