Categories: Keepers TourNostalgiaThe HardmenTradition

Cobbled Classics 2013 Forecast: Hardman’s Valmanac

As many of you know, one of my specialties is examining events, imagining trends in them, and then predicting future events by painting with broad strokes based on those findings. I find this approach particularly effective when it pertains to topics of which I know less than nothing. In many ways, this is the same thing meteorologists do, so in that sense it is very fitting that my current prediction is for the weather of the 2013 Cobbled Classics.

I consider Het Volk to be a harbinger of what is to come for the major classics coming about a month later. By ignoring all data points that don’t support my assumptions, my study has conclusively demonstrated the following points:

Rare is the case when a rider wins Het Volk and also wins de Ronde or Roubaix.
Weather can’t hold a peak any better than a rider can, apparently; dry weather in Het Volk means wet weather in April and vice versa.
Riders who race Het Volk in their Flandrian Best generally perform better in the monuments.
Racing to the win in too-long a pair of knickers is a specter of failure for future events.
Racing with an upturned cycling cap brim will yield a season fraught with spectacular highs and lows.

In light of this, it was with great relief that I noticed that while the weather was cold for Het Volk, it was also dry. Which conclusively shows that the bergs in de Ronde and the trench in Roubaix will be coated in heaps of slippery mud. Thank Merckx, too; it’s been too many years of dry weather for my taste. For those of you smart enough to sign up for Keepers Tour, this will be epic. And yes, I know its not called Het Volk anymore. (We have a few open spots left on the Tour, so get in while the getting’s good.)

frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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View Comments

the Engine says:

Mar 4 2013 at 4:07 am

@Dr C

@the Engine

ride what you like chap, I put a set of Vittoria Open Pave on last year and they flatted on the first set of cobbles last year - stray sniper shot I think

Always a danger in Belgium...
Chris says:

Mar 4 2013 at 4:14 am

@frank is there a list of KT13 attendees?

There are seven bikes, including mine, booked on the 08:04 from London to Lille on 29 March. Do any of them belong to KT13 attendees?
Chris says:

Mar 4 2013 at 4:20 am

@Dr C It's no wonder it hurt after your 95km epic on Saturday. Strong work.

Shame it's not on Strava, I dread to think what my heart rate would hit doing laps of a technical course on my MTB!
RedRanger says:

Mar 4 2013 at 5:52 am

@G'rilla I can't even imagine. My arms felt like jello after one hour on Saturday. That's just from keeping the bike on a line.
Dr C says:

Mar 4 2013 at 6:36 am

@Chris

@frank is there a list of KT13 attendees?

There are seven bikes, including mine, booked on the 08:04 from London to Lille on 29 March. Do any of them belong to KT13 attendees?

Have you been drinking plenty of red wine to get that gout fully active to maximise your suffering on KT13?
Dr C says:

Mar 4 2013 at 6:39 am

How about a V-plonker prize to go along with anti-V and V-moment prizes

First up is Philip Potato in the Roma Maximus - what a tube - actually felt quite embarrassed for him

Potential V-moment in same race for Biel Gadret for his solo from 40K out, esp give the last 25K were on the flat, with 5 chasers working well together and a charging field up their chuffs and they still couldn't catch him - pure class!!!!
Chris says:

Mar 4 2013 at 7:08 am

@Dr C I'm confused now, I thought that as an anti-oxidant, red wine was supposed to make me strong and healthy.

To be honest I've been the model of abstinence since I flushed out any remnants of last years form on a cocktail binge in New York. I've just devised a new "Peak in One Month Training Program" it's top secret but the Pave Cycling Classics broom wagon driver will be able to to tell you how successful it was on 30 April.
Deakus says:

Mar 4 2013 at 7:59 am

@Dr C

@Chris

@frank is there a list of KT13 attendees?

There are seven bikes, including mine, booked on the 08:04 from London to Lille on 29 March. Do any of them belong to KT13 attendees?

Have you been drinking plenty of red wine to get that gout fully active to maximise your suffering on KT13?

Don't joke! As a long term gout sufferer that shit is worse than childbirth!.....Having said that 2 Allopurinol a day now ensure I can ride and drink vast quantities of hop related beverages in complete relaxation without the fear of a momentary lapsing causing an attack lasting 3 weeks and the associated damage to joints (the big toes in my case)!
Chris says:

Mar 4 2013 at 8:19 am

@Deakus It's a long running joke between @Dr C and I. My left knee is not quite the joint it used to be and was diagnosed as having a spot of gout, a smattering of arthritis, plenty of scar tissue and a lack of cartilage. I've never suffered from the debilitating attacks that many people speak of but there is a background level of pain there that certainly gets worse with alcohol consumption.

I can't run on it but it seems to function perfectly well for cycling - the pain even starts to reduce when I am cycling a lot on a consistent basis. I need to get it looked at again by someone who actually gives a fuck but in the meantime, I couldn't possibly go wrong with diagnosis by internet from @Dr C, could I? The effect is somewhat spoiled by the fact that I've actually met him, but I've no real idea whether he's an actual doctor or not.
Deakus says:

Mar 4 2013 at 11:20 am

@Chris

@Deakus It's a long running joke between @Dr C and I. My left knee is not quite the joint it used to be and was diagnosed as having a spot of gout, a smattering of arthritis, plenty of scar tissue and a lack of cartilage. I've never suffered from the debilitating attacks that many people speak of but there is a background level of pain there that certainly gets worse with alcohol consumption.

I can't run on it but it seems to function perfectly well for cycling - the pain even starts to reduce when I am cycling a lot on a consistent basis. I need to get it looked at again by someone who actually gives a fuck but in the meantime, I couldn't possibly go wrong with diagnosis by internet from @Dr C, could I? The effect is somewhat spoiled by the fact that I've actually met him, but I've no real idea whether he's an actual doctor or not.

Well I feel for you if you have even a smattering of it...you should remember that every gout attack damages the joint (it is related to rheumatoid arthritis in that way). I started out just taking heavy doses of anti inflammatories but as soon as the attacks became regular I went straight on to preventative medicine, which works an absolute treat. Alcohol always used to trigger it with me (not food) and in the end I figured out it was closely related to dehydration...

Anyway enough of my schleck like whingeing....I will now politely recede from my intrusion in to the internal joke!