Seriously. Is it almost September? This was not the agreement, this was supposed to be an endless summer. And all you A-Holes down there in the Antipodes are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, enjoying longer days and shorter nights. I don’t need to tell you where you can take that, but it’s dark and it smells. I have no patience for the changing of seasons when it means I’m going to be benching Number One and busting out the headlight.
I’m not going to lie to you; the Vuelta is my least-favorite race of the year. Part of it is the parcours-it’s hard enough to get excited about flat sprint stages in the Tour, but these stages in central Spain that go down a straight freeway for hours are just too much for my brain to find interesting. Hey look! There’s another shrub! Wasn’t he a President at one point? There will be some redeeming points of the race, I’m sure, and the shit-steep climbs they dot along the route are certain to be highlights of the season. But after you do the math, this is the grand tour with the weakest field, the worst route, and-most damning-the strongest signal that Summer is coming to an end on the half of the world that matters.
I can’t be bothered to sort out the route and what stages are going to matter, but I’ll tell you this: for the last few years, the winner of the Vuelta VSP has won the VSP GC. A few years back, @Marcus complained that he only lost the VSP because @Nate used the second Rest Day Swaps to his advantage to take the win, but after heavily increasing the penalties, he kept losing. Typical of a man who posts photos of his todger on a Cycling site. (@Nate, your win was clean according to the VCI.) Speaking of which, at worst the Vuelta will distract from Pat McQuaid and his bid for losing the UCI Presidency.
He has a strong lead in the 2013 Anti-V competition, however.
Check the start list, get your picks in, and don’t Delgado this baby; it could be your ticket to the shop apron. Bon chance.
[vsp_results id=”26944″/]
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@LA Dave
I'm not sure that's a great analogy. I'd say sticking with your picks is more akin to Dave Brailsford having to stick with Henao and Uran Uran for the duration of the race despite the fact that they're not going quite as well has he would have liked.
This isn't soccer.
@Chris
Generally it seems that 1st day swaps risk costing points when the race is still not clear cut. There are times when, if you have all 5 20 minutes down on the GC it makes sense but if you just tweak placings with the pts cost it rarely pays off (although never say never).
2nd day swaps are just too expensive....there was a golden period where 2nd day swaps were great way to go from zero to hero because the GC would be much more clear cut, but these days at 20pts a swap I cannot see it paying off.
@LA Dave the reason people stick to their guns and hold on to blind hope is because the alternative is to shoot yourself in the foot with a points cost set of changes that don't pay off.
I am not sure it really has much to do with Bravado, more that we have learned better....wisdom comes with experience (insert suitably winking emoticon).
Having said that...what the fuck do I know...I am currently running 60th on this Vuelta so don't listen to a word I have just said!
@LA Dave
No, it's kind of like the thing where I used to get people asking me why I climbed big mountains. There is really no answer except if you have to ask, you'll never know.
Some completely, admittedly, irrational sense of honour that you never leave a man behind, that you stay and dance with whomever you brought.
But glad to have given you a laugh at least!
@Deakus Actually the point penalty has nothing to do with it for me, Deakus. I have never made a rest day swap, even when the penalties were not that high, and I wouldn't if there were no point penalties.
But then again, I have never won the VSP, either so definitely do not take advice from me!!!
@Deakus
Yes. Those of us afflicted with the math gene have just figured out it doesn't pay off. It isn't about honor, of which I have none, it is about the fact that it is too early to try and fine tune a pick for first (better to take my 3 points than risk a likely -2), and the second rest day is just too expensive to make sense. If I were to take Nibbles out of first and put him in second, while swapping in Horner, I would end up with a net loss in points even if I got it right.
@razmaspaz
Noone has EVER accused me of having a maths gene....I suddenly have a warm feeling inside!
Good to see I'm not the only one channelling Rule #5 / the perfect amount of dumb (delete as applicable) and sticking with some appalling choices. I've known all year I couldn't replicate my neo-pro result from last year (5th on GC I think?) and this year's Vuelta sums it up:
1: Crowded house, lost time on day 2, actually still looking half passable at 7 mins down.
2: J-Rod, my only points earner so far and the only rider between me and the broom wagon.
3: Intxausti - punctured on the Stage 1 TTT, now +1h 24'.
4: Dan Martin - putting his feet up at home with an ice pack on his head whilst regrowing substantial amounts of skin.
5: Betancur. +1h 57' 23". That is all.
I'm not offering to pick lottery tickets this week.
Canellara THROWING down the gauntlet! Will be an interesting ITT at the WC!
As for rest day swaps, I expect that I will rue the day I decided Nibali didn't care that much about this Vuelta in light of the Worlds. In any event, I only swapped out Dan Martin. So, that puts me on balance, right? I mean, I left Bad Cadel in my TdF picks.
@Buck Rogers
That was an extremely impressive performance indeed!