Velominati Super Prestige: La Vuelta a España 2013
Seriously. Is it almost September? This was not the agreement, this was supposed to be an endless summer. And all you A-Holes down there in the Antipodes are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, enjoying longer days and shorter nights. I don’t need to tell you where you can take that, but it’s dark and it smells. I have no patience for the changing of seasons when it means I’m going to be benching Number One and busting out the headlight.
I’m not going to lie to you; the Vuelta is my least-favorite race of the year. Part of it is the parcours-it’s hard enough to get excited about flat sprint stages in the Tour, but these stages in central Spain that go down a straight freeway for hours are just too much for my brain to find interesting. Hey look! There’s another shrub! Wasn’t he a President at one point? There will be some redeeming points of the race, I’m sure, and the shit-steep climbs they dot along the route are certain to be highlights of the season. But after you do the math, this is the grand tour with the weakest field, the worst route, and-most damning-the strongest signal that Summer is coming to an end on the half of the world that matters.
I can’t be bothered to sort out the route and what stages are going to matter, but I’ll tell you this: for the last few years, the winner of the Vuelta VSP has won the VSP GC. A few years back, @Marcus complained that he only lost the VSP because @Nate used the second Rest Day Swaps to his advantage to take the win, but after heavily increasing the penalties, he kept losing. Typical of a man who posts photos of his todger on a Cycling site. (@Nate, your win was clean according to the VCI.) Speaking of which, at worst the Vuelta will distract from Pat McQuaid and his bid for losing the UCI Presidency.
He has a strong lead in the 2013 Anti-V competition, however.
Check the start list, get your picks in, and don’t Delgado this baby; it could be your ticket to the shop apron. Bon chance.
[vsp_results id=”26944″/]
@ChrisO
Looks like Lance’s fridge from his flat in Girona was never emptied orunplugged….
@RedRanger
Yes, I believe what @frank ran standings off of was the mountains classification. Which sucks for anyone doing rest day swaps off of those standings, just another reason not to do rest day swaps.
1
Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack Leopard
15
pts
2
Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana Pro Team
10
3
Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team
6
4
Ivan Basso (Ita) Cannondale Pro Cycling
4
5
Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha
2
@ped
Ha! Well played!
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Horner
2. Nibali
Well, I’ll take Dan Martin out and put Basso in. But it pains me to do so.
And as for Horner, I have a theory. Challenge me if you will. I think that the reason he hasn’t been hit for doping with Armstrong and or USA Cycling is he was too much of a loose cannon to get the “white bag.” That’s why he rode for other teams. I don’t think Lance trusted him. Accordingly, I don’t think USA Cycling trusted him. That’s why he rode elsewhere.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Chris Horner
2. Sammy Sanchez
3. Joaquim Rodriguez
4. Ivan Basso
5. Alejandro Valverde
God, Chris, please don’t be. Please.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Nibali
2. J. Rodriguez
3. Horner
4. Malmerde
5. Basso
Here’s a photo that can go in the Lexicon under– The V. Valverde was quoted in Velonation yesterday: “It seems like a hard time trial, so it shouldn’t be bad for me. We’ll put some guts on it and suffer as much as we can.”
http://www.steephill.tv/2013/vuelta-a-espana/photos/stage-10/#287-PIC393081206.jpg
Is it just me or does the look on Valverde’s face seem like he’s up to something?
Nuts!! The link lands on Basso…scroll back a bit to get yesterday’s group of 4 GC contenders (not incl Horner and Nibali who were out in front) with Valverde in the centre of the shot.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. NIBALI Vincenzo
2. HORNER Christopher
3. ROCHE Nicolas
4. RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
5. MARTIN Daniel
poor d mart…
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Valverde
2. Nibali
3. Horner
4. Uran
5. Basso
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Valverde
2. Rodriguez
3. Nibali
4. Horner
5. Basso
@Buck Rogers
I’ve the same two anchors around my neck and there they’ll stay. Bad picks are like bad tattoos.
BTW, I have a mom, 2 aunts, a cousin, and a landlord named Nancy. Please don’t make any more.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Horner
2. Nibali
3. Henao
4. Sammy sammy sanchez
5. Betancur
No picks changes for me despite having Henao in there at 4th and selecting Basso as my sole old guy.
Have to say I enjoy seeing Horner smile his way to the top of the climb whilst crushing it. Enjoy the work, indeed.
@imakecircles
Move along…there is nothing to see here….no changes either, rest day swaps are like ordering a Vindaloo…it seemed like a good idea at the time!
Big risk = bg reward.
After over-thinking and making possibly my worst VSP picks ever, I have to go for broke and dump Sammy and Sergio. Purito and Nibbles in.
I still think Nibbles is training and won’t go for broke to win. He also seems to be running out of teammates when the road gets steep.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Valverde
2. Joaquim Rodriguez
3. NIbali
4. Majka
5. Betancur
Anyone else see this great quote from Rodriguez yesterday: “It’s not that we were slow, it’s that he was faster than us,” It’s level of profundity makes it an instant classic and one that can be used by all Velominati. “No honey, I didn’t lose the race, he just finished first.”
@wiscot
ergo….i was not the second winner…i was the first loser!!
@Buck Rogers
Testify brother!
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Dirty Sammy
2. Purito
3. His Nibs
4. Don't dream it's over
5. Dan Martin
Can’t help but laugh at all the posts chastising others for making rest day swaps. Like there is some great honor in riding bad picks to the end just because you were dumb enough to pick them in the first place. That’s like saying Merckx would have ridden on a broken spoke just because it was the wheel he started the race on.
My 3 to 5 picks have been an utter disappointment thus far and I was a dope to make the selections: Betancur 1:58 down (that’s one hour and fifty eight minutes) and Kreuziger 48 minutes down have made Henao look like he actually has a shot at only 7:08 back.
Because of this I’m in for some swaps. Horner and Dirty look like they have the chops this time, so I’m taking a flyer that they’ll slot in just right for me. At least they have a chance and if not, I’m not much worse off than I am now.
Just think of it as my VSP version of a Jens Voigt breakaway up Mont Ventoux or L’Alpe D’Huez. it’s probably not going to happen but at least he’s trying. The big difference is instead of yelling “Shut up legs” I’m yelling “Shut up brain” and swapping like there’s no tomorrow.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Nibbles the Shark
2. Purito
3. Horner
4. Valverde
5. Henao
@wiscot
I saw that as well. Classic. Right up there with some of Yogi Berra’s best quotes.
Roche for Martin, who crashed out and Horner for Mollema who’s not even close anymore. Hopefully I can salvage some points. I do think Nibali is looking like a podium finisher and probably the top step, not the third, but another swap would be just that many more points lost.
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. J-ROD
2. A. VALVERDE
3. V. NIBALI
4. N. ROCHE
5. C. HORNER
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Nibali
2. Valverde
3. Horner
4. Rodriguez
5. Betancur
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Nibali
2. Horner
3. Valverde
4. J rod
5. Basso
Henao and Betancur out. Horner and Roche in. I takes my chances…
VSP PICKS (1st Rest Day Swaps):
1. Nibali
2. Horner
3. Rodriguez
4. Valverde
5. Roche
@Mike_P
Certainly, if the “Duck” principal should ever apply, its now !
Im calling a Rule #5 on this and not doing any swaps this race.
Having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory during the TDF and having a sweet set of Cafe Roubaix Carbones taken off me on the penultimate day, I refuse to swap, action, revise, or manipulate my tips in any way shape or fashion out of sheer spite for myself.
Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez should know better !
Who is this revelation of a rider they call Horner anyway ?
Damn, forgot to check in yesterday to drop Henao. Ah well, who knows what will happen this week? It’s been a pretty fucking unpredictable race so far.
And whilst I want to believe in Horner, um, I’m really struggling to. He’s probably “Rider 15” in the USADA report, pointed at by Leipheimer.
I was bemoaning the fact that Henao was over 7 minutes down until I took a closer look at my picks. I am just wondering whether or not Kreuziger can make back the 46:16 he has lost so far….I think picking him for 2nd in La Vuelta may have been a miscalculation!
@LA Dave
I’m not sure that’s a great analogy. I’d say sticking with your picks is more akin to Dave Brailsford having to stick with Henao and Uran Uran for the duration of the race despite the fact that they’re not going quite as well has he would have liked.
This isn’t soccer.
@Chris
Generally it seems that 1st day swaps risk costing points when the race is still not clear cut. There are times when, if you have all 5 20 minutes down on the GC it makes sense but if you just tweak placings with the pts cost it rarely pays off (although never say never).
2nd day swaps are just too expensive….there was a golden period where 2nd day swaps were great way to go from zero to hero because the GC would be much more clear cut, but these days at 20pts a swap I cannot see it paying off.
@LA Dave the reason people stick to their guns and hold on to blind hope is because the alternative is to shoot yourself in the foot with a points cost set of changes that don’t pay off.
I am not sure it really has much to do with Bravado, more that we have learned better….wisdom comes with experience (insert suitably winking emoticon).
Having said that…what the fuck do I know…I am currently running 60th on this Vuelta so don’t listen to a word I have just said!
@LA Dave
No, it’s kind of like the thing where I used to get people asking me why I climbed big mountains. There is really no answer except if you have to ask, you’ll never know.
Some completely, admittedly, irrational sense of honour that you never leave a man behind, that you stay and dance with whomever you brought.
But glad to have given you a laugh at least!
@Deakus Actually the point penalty has nothing to do with it for me, Deakus. I have never made a rest day swap, even when the penalties were not that high, and I wouldn’t if there were no point penalties.
But then again, I have never won the VSP, either so definitely do not take advice from me!!!
@Deakus
Yes. Those of us afflicted with the math gene have just figured out it doesn’t pay off. It isn’t about honor, of which I have none, it is about the fact that it is too early to try and fine tune a pick for first (better to take my 3 points than risk a likely -2), and the second rest day is just too expensive to make sense. If I were to take Nibbles out of first and put him in second, while swapping in Horner, I would end up with a net loss in points even if I got it right.
@razmaspaz
Noone has EVER accused me of having a maths gene….I suddenly have a warm feeling inside!
Good to see I’m not the only one channelling Rule #5 / the perfect amount of dumb (delete as applicable) and sticking with some appalling choices. I’ve known all year I couldn’t replicate my neo-pro result from last year (5th on GC I think?) and this year’s Vuelta sums it up:
1: Crowded house, lost time on day 2, actually still looking half passable at 7 mins down.
2: J-Rod, my only points earner so far and the only rider between me and the broom wagon.
3: Intxausti – punctured on the Stage 1 TTT, now +1h 24′.
4: Dan Martin – putting his feet up at home with an ice pack on his head whilst regrowing substantial amounts of skin.
5: Betancur. +1h 57′ 23″. That is all.
I’m not offering to pick lottery tickets this week.
Canellara THROWING down the gauntlet! Will be an interesting ITT at the WC!
As for rest day swaps, I expect that I will rue the day I decided Nibali didn’t care that much about this Vuelta in light of the Worlds. In any event, I only swapped out Dan Martin. So, that puts me on balance, right? I mean, I left Bad Cadel in my TdF picks.
@Buck Rogers
That was an extremely impressive performance indeed!
I guess race officials are now saying there was an error with the initial time checks and that Cancellara was in fact always up on Martin rather than coming back on the second half of the course.
@Buck Rogers It’s going to be an interesting road race too. Faboo has been crushing people on the climbs while working for Old Man Horner. I’ve always like Cancellra, so I like seeing him going really well.
Only Cancellara and martin faster than Pozzitivo today.
@Buck Rogers
I think he has lost weight, concentrated on climbing, and I’ve thought for some time that he’s targeting the road race – especially after nearly winning the Olympic Gold last year. Winning a Spring classic in the rainbow bands would be awesome. At the same time, a double is in the back of his mind as well …
How about FUCK’IN Slammy Dirty Sammy!!! Dude was TENTH on the ITT today. Is that a typo on the cyclingnews site? Wonder how far back he is now overall?
Must be riding himself into form (yeah, right–where’s the smile emoticon when you need it)
Ahh, appears Dirty Sanchez is in 15th, still over 4 minuites out of the Top 5. Maybe he’ll pull a Roid Landis stage and ride back into it!
And Henao is just under ten minutes out of the Top 5 in 27th. Maybe they can do a mini-Team TT to salvage my picks!
What a wide open and fun Vuelta so far! 7 lead changes already and 4 strong contenders within a minute. Plus, all the TT’s are done and there’s plenty of pure climbers within a shout for the climb heavy second half. Valverde looked strong, losing only a little time despite flatting. And Pozzovivo came from nowhere. Was a little surprised and disappointed that the jersey didn’t give Horner wings, and I suspect the other GC guys won’t give him the leash that he seemed to enjoy early on the subsequent mountain stages.
Wow, somehow I have the red jersey again. Woo hoo!
@Barracuda
So it’s not just me thinking his performance is Cobo-esque.
@razmaspaz
Well I was jokingly referring to those who were posting that it was about bravado. I understand that it is statistically not likely to happen, but it has paid off for me on a few of occasions in the past, and when you’ve got 2 riders who are over an hour down, I’d rather risk the minus 4 points to possibly gain 15.
So far it’s worked out for me, as 4 of my riders are in the top 5. Only 2 in the right spots, but one of them is a swap, so at this point I’m up by a whopping 3 points.
Long way to go though, so we’ll have to see how the gamble shakes out. I won’t be betting any real money on my chances at success however…but at least now I’ve got 4 dogs in the fight instead of 2.