Velominati Super Prestige: Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2015

Merckx leaves them behind on the Stockeu

Liege is an interesting animal; whereas the Cobbled Classics are the sole domain of the specialists known as de Klassiekers in Flemish who rarely show their faces as serious contenders in the other portions of the season (assuming you ignore John Degencobble or Al Kristoff), the Ardennes classics have a strong showing from the Grand Tour GC contenders, rouleurs, and climbing specialists alike. Liege, being the biggest of the lot, is the final showdown and provides the first real glimpse into what might unfold in May and July.

The route is a brute; the road back from Bastogne being packed tight with shortish, punchy climbs. My favorite of the lot is the Cote de Stockeu, which climbs up steeply before taking a hard left turn and dropping right back down to the precise point from where the climb started. Its inclusion in the route is gratuitous in the most sinister sense. From there to the finish the route is bumpy to say the least, and the final uphill grind through town is where the race is lost if you don’t have the legs.

Will Nibbles take it? He’s performed well in the final before. Or will one of the specialists take it this time around? Last year saw Gerrans take the win from a small group, but a solo winner is just as likely. Amstel had a big bunch, so maybe QuietKowski will show again.

Start your Prognostication Machines, ponder the start list, and set your alarms to remind yourself not to Delgado. Good luck, and remember we have a frame from Jaegher and wheels from Café Roubaix on offer for the overall VSP winner after Lombardy.

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frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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View Comments

osbk67 says:

Apr 25 2015 at 1:12 pm
After two poached eggs at Flèche Wallonne I'll stop picking if this is another one. Promise...

VSP PICKS:
1. Nibali
2. Alaphilippe
3. Mollema
4. Kelderman
5. Roche
brett says:

Apr 25 2015 at 1:21 pm
VSP PICKS:
1. Piti the fool
2. Kwitter
3. Nibs
4. Gibs
5. Rod, J
LeoTea says:

Apr 25 2015 at 2:02 pm
VSP PICKS:
1. Kwiatkowski
2. Valverde
3. Gallopin
4. Nibbles
5. J Rod
John Irvine says:

Apr 25 2015 at 2:27 pm
VSP PICKS:
1. Valverde
2. Kwiatkowski
3. Dan Martin
4. Pozzovivo
5. Rodriguez
harminator says:

Apr 25 2015 at 2:36 pm
@frank
@Harminator
@rockkk

Can anyone stop the green valley? I ‘m not sure they can . I just hope Gerrans doesn’t wheel suck his way to a good result .

VSP PICKS:

valverde

kelderman

rodriguez

kiatkowski

bardet

I’m happy to concede that Gerrans following wheels in Australian races against much weaker domestic riders was totally lame. But in a Monument against the best teams in the world, its just smart racing. The job of the other teams is to unhinge anyone who can finish better than their finisher. If they can’t do that, they have to accept the consequences. How long was Kwiatowski in the wind last weekend?
All fair enough but how much more exciting is it when you see a rider doing their time in the wind and then still coming good like, like Kristoff at Flanders or Degencobble at Roubaix. There’s a “risk it all” kind of honor in it that is absent in a wheel sucking win.
Degs was definitely the man at Roubaix this year. And Kristoff was clearly dominant at the Rhonde. Both wins were strong and smart. I was in 3 separate conversations on #KT15 where a local renner gave the gallic shrug and said the words "the strongest won". Its like a Flemish climax. (I couldn't stop - I just kept going - I came first.) These wins close the discussion from the "what if" and celebrate the rider. There is no doubt.
Alex says:

Apr 25 2015 at 3:05 pm
Betting the break: Nibali will go and almost pulled it off a couple of years ago. The question then becomes "who will go with him?". Pozzovivo perhaps...

VSP PICKS:
1. Nibali
2. Pozzovivo
3. Valverde
4. Kwiatkowski
5. Gallopin
Chica says:

Apr 25 2015 at 3:19 pm
Some go with the heads for picks, and others, their hearts. This is a bit of both for me - head says to pick Piti because I need the points and I can't stop dreaming about the Jaegher, but my heart hopes to Merckx that one of my other four choices beats that wanker.

There are not enough hill repeats or showers to rid me of the dirtiness I feel after picking Piti.

VSP PICKS:
1. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte
2. Michal Kwiatkowski
3. Tony Gallopin
4. Dan Martin
5. Joaquím Rodríguez Oliver
rockkk says:

Apr 25 2015 at 3:44 pm
@harminator
@frank
@Harminator

@rockkk

Can anyone stop the green valley? I ‘m not sure they can . I just hope Gerrans doesn’t wheel suck his way to a good result .

VSP PICKS:

valverde

kelderman

rodriguez

kiatkowski

bardet

I’m happy to concede that Gerrans following wheels in Australian races against much weaker domestic riders was totally lame. But in a Monument against the best teams in the world, its just smart racing. The job of the other teams is to unhinge anyone who can finish better than their finisher. If they can’t do that, they have to accept the consequences. How long was Kwiatowski in the wind last weekend?

All fair enough but how much more exciting is it when you see a rider doing their time in the wind and then still coming good like, like Kristoff at Flanders or Degencobble at Roubaix. There’s a “risk it all” kind of honor in it that is absent in a wheel sucking win.
Degs was definitely the man at Roubaix this year. And Kristoff was clearly dominant at the Rhonde. Both wins were strong and smart. I was in 3 separate conversations on #KT15 where a local renner gave the gallic shrug and said the words “the strongest won”. Its like a Flemish climax. (I couldn’t stop – I just kept going – I came first.) These wins close the discussion from the “what if” and celebrate the rider. There is no doubt.
I would include Paolinis ride in G W as well . The ride of the year so far , in my opinion.

I take these words as a sign from above - wheelsucker Kwiatkowski out , young gun alaphilippe in

VSP PICKS:
1. valverde
2. kelderman
3. rodriguez
4. alaphillipe
5. bardet
Geraint says:

Apr 25 2015 at 3:45 pm
VSP PICKS:
1. KWIATKOWSKI Michal
2. MARTIN Daniel
3. FARIA DA COSTA Rui Alberto
4. VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro
5. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim
David says:

Apr 25 2015 at 3:47 pm
VSP PICKS:
1. Nibali
2. Rodriguez
3. Valverde
4. Pozzovivio
5. Bardet