Velominati Super Prestige: Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2015

Merckx leaves them behind on the Stockeu

Liege is an interesting animal; whereas the Cobbled Classics are the sole domain of the specialists known as de Klassiekers in Flemish who rarely show their faces as serious contenders in the other portions of the season (assuming you ignore John Degencobble or Al Kristoff), the Ardennes classics have a strong showing from the Grand Tour GC contenders, rouleurs, and climbing specialists alike. Liege, being the biggest of the lot, is the final showdown and provides the first real glimpse into what might unfold in May and July.

The route is a brute; the road back from Bastogne being packed tight with shortish, punchy climbs. My favorite of the lot is the Cote de Stockeu, which climbs up steeply before taking a hard left turn and dropping right back down to the precise point from where the climb started. Its inclusion in the route is gratuitous in the most sinister sense. From there to the finish the route is bumpy to say the least, and the final uphill grind through town is where the race is lost if you don’t have the legs.

Will Nibbles take it? He’s performed well in the final before. Or will one of the specialists take it this time around? Last year saw Gerrans take the win from a small group, but a solo winner is just as likely. Amstel had a big bunch, so maybe QuietKowski will show again.

Start your Prognostication Machines, ponder the start list, and set your alarms to remind yourself not to Delgado. Good luck, and remember we have a frame from Jaegher and wheels from Café Roubaix on offer for the overall VSP winner after Lombardy.

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frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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View Comments

Gianni says:

Apr 26 2015 at 12:02 am
I know I should pick Malmerde but I've already soiled myself with him once this season. And I feel dirty.

VSP PICKS:
1. Rolland, P
2. Kwiatkowski
3. Costa, Rui
4. Kelderman, W
5. Gallopin, T
Fausto says:

Apr 26 2015 at 12:19 am
Hopefully this will work out better than last Sunday which went roughly as follows:

Realise I've forgotten to enter my picks whilst driving to race, curse bitterly.

Find enough mobile signal to realise picks aren't closed, but not enough to enter, rejoice.

Discuss likely victors with team mate; proclaim Kwiatkowski as being a sure thing.

Get to race, get distracted by signing on, warming up etc and forget to enter picks.

Realise this halfway through the race, curse bitterly whilst getting a good shoeing in a lined out bunch courtesy of some proper Pros who only have to ride their bikes on Monday.

Finish race with no points and no picks. Go home to eat body weight in chocolate brownies and watch the race, see MK take the win.

Curse bitterly.

VSP PICKS:
1. Oh Danny Boy
2. The Uncursed Rainbow
3. Pitiful
4. J-Rod
5. Wheelsucking Gerro
Tiglio says:

Apr 26 2015 at 12:43 am
VSP PICKS:
1. Kwiatkowski
2. Alejandro F**king Valverde
3. Martin, Dan
4. Gallopin
5. Rodriguez
ojhart says:

Apr 26 2015 at 1:09 am
VSP PICKS:
1. Valverde
2. Rodriguez
3. Kwiatkowski
4. Gallopin
5. Dan Martin
bea says:

Apr 26 2015 at 1:14 am
VSP PICKS:
1. nibali
2. valverde
3. wellens
4. gilbert
5. kwiatkowski
gilly says:

Apr 26 2015 at 1:17 am
@harminator
@frank
@Harminator

@rockkk

Can anyone stop the green valley? I ‘m not sure they can . I just hope Gerrans doesn’t wheel suck his way to a good result .

VSP PICKS:

valverde

kelderman

rodriguez

kiatkowski

bardet

I’m happy to concede that Gerrans following wheels in Australian races against much weaker domestic riders was totally lame. But in a Monument against the best teams in the world, its just smart racing. The job of the other teams is to unhinge anyone who can finish better than their finisher. If they can’t do that, they have to accept the consequences. How long was Kwiatowski in the wind last weekend?

All fair enough but how much more exciting is it when you see a rider doing their time in the wind and then still coming good like, like Kristoff at Flanders or Degencobble at Roubaix. There’s a “risk it all” kind of honor in it that is absent in a wheel sucking win.
Degs was definitely the man at Roubaix this year. And Kristoff was clearly dominant at the Rhonde. Both wins were strong and smart. I was in 3 separate conversations on #KT15 where a local renner gave the gallic shrug and said the words “the strongest won”. Its like a Flemish climax. (I couldn’t stop – I just kept going – I came first.) These wins close the discussion from the “what if” and celebrate the rider. There is no doubt.
I think Kwiatkowski is getting some unfair stick here. One race does not a wheel sucker make. Thinking back to how he won the worlds, which was a master class in tactical riding AND panache, I'm prepared to give him the benefit of doubt for last week.
Geordi says:

Apr 26 2015 at 1:35 am
VSP PICKS:
1. Valverde
2. Kwiatkowski
3. Rui Costa
4. Rodriguez
5. Pozzovivo
rockkk says:

Apr 26 2015 at 1:47 am
@gilly
@harminator
@frank

@Harminator

@rockkk

Can anyone stop the green valley? I ‘m not sure they can . I just hope Gerrans doesn’t wheel suck his way to a good result .

VSP PICKS:

valverde

kelderman

rodriguez

kiatkowski

bardet

I’m happy to concede that Gerrans following wheels in Australian races against much weaker domestic riders was totally lame. But in a Monument against the best teams in the world, its just smart racing. The job of the other teams is to unhinge anyone who can finish better than their finisher. If they can’t do that, they have to accept the consequences. How long was Kwiatowski in the wind last weekend?

All fair enough but how much more exciting is it when you see a rider doing their time in the wind and then still coming good like, like Kristoff at Flanders or Degencobble at Roubaix. There’s a “risk it all” kind of honor in it that is absent in a wheel sucking win.

Degs was definitely the man at Roubaix this year. And Kristoff was clearly dominant at the Rhonde. Both wins were strong and smart. I was in 3 separate conversations on #KT15 where a local renner gave the gallic shrug and said the words “the strongest won”. Its like a Flemish climax. (I couldn’t stop – I just kept going – I came first.) These wins close the discussion from the “what if” and celebrate the rider. There is no doubt.
I think Kwiatkowski is getting some unfair stick here. One race does not a wheel sucker make. Thinking back to how he won the worlds, which was a master class in tactical riding AND panache, I’m prepared to give him the benefit of doubt for last week.
I have to agree with you . His ride in last years Strade Bianche was pretty awesome as well He's back in

VSP PICKS:
1. valverde
2. kelderman
3. rodriguez
4. Kwiatkowski
5. bardet
xyxax says:

Apr 26 2015 at 3:06 am

@Fausto

While I don't wish you any bad luck, that was extra funny.
Alex says:

Apr 26 2015 at 3:10 am

@Harminator

Also Pozzo was a key animator in last year's race and is coming off fine form shown at Trentino. The finale is plenty hard to suit Valverde, he'll be there or there abouts for sure.

I don't think he's ever gone long though.

And speaking of long - it's damn time we went for a ride together again.