Velominati Super Prestige: Men’s Olympic Road Race 2012

Grewal, legally doped to the gills, takes the win ahead of Canadian Steve Bauer.

You can all wave “goodbye” to your Post GT Depression Syndrome, because the Men’s Olympic Road Race is only three days yonder. I don’t typically give two shits about this particular event; while contested by national teams, unlike the Worlds it appears as just another one-day race on a calendar filled with events that carry much more historical and nostalgic significance. What’s worse, it seems the brilliance has faded from the flame of Olympic Spirit – after all, what is an international sports rivalry without the associated political Boggie Dance of Political Superiority? Merckx, I miss the Cold War.

But this time is different. Contested in London over a route that may or may not favor the squat little speed demon Mark Cavendish, the Cycling world has been abuzz about whether his presence on Team Sky alongside Pippi Longstockings implies his impending doom or his certain success – because everyone knows those are the only two possibilities. Be that as it may, the route boasts to be lumpy enough for breakaways or small field sprints, which makes this particular Velominatus, for once, really excited to see what happens. Oh, and as a special request to the riders, if we could keep everyone off the juice this time round, that would be peaches and creame.

With that, check the start list and pretend like that is going to help you make your predictions. Then look at the route and do the same before making a wild guess and hoping you come up good. One-Day VSP rules apply; get your picks in by the time the countdown timer goes to zero and pray for daylight.

Good luck.

frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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View Comments

Aidas says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:05 pm

I think Cancelara wants to bring home something shiny for the new baby.

VSP PICKS:

1. Faboo
2. Boonen
3. Sagan
4. Chavanel
5. Albasini
Adrian says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:21 pm

Cav was in the paper the other day where he admitted he had been riding the route regularly over the last few months and has memorized every turn, traffic island etc. When asked after how many laps of Box Hill did he start to feel the lactate and his answer was four......! With 5 more to go he may be buggered after the climbs. Wiggo will have to drag his ass back on to the group for any chance of a sprint finish me thinks.....

We drove several sections of the course yesterday, and yep, narrow roads, lots of road furniture, some nasty hairpin bends.

Watch out for Coombe lane, a steep descent with a wicked hairpin and the road surface is crap.

I think we may be in for a few crashes.......
snoov says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:31 pm

VSP PICKS:

1. Cavendish
2. Greipel
3. Sagan
4. Goss
5. Boonen
ChrisO says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:36 pm

@RedRanger

has anyone found a course profile? Im shooting from the hip since I have nothing to lose.

VSP PICKS:

I know it extremely well - it's my regular Sunday ride when I'm back in London.

Box Hill is not a hard climb in itself - I can do it maintaining around 17-18km/h and it takes around 7.5 minutes.

There are two tightish corners but also straight sections between. For the pros they would probably stay in the big ring, and it is probably just hard enough that someone who wants to get away can use the bigger gears on the straights and power up. Even a rider like Wiggins or Evans who doesn't have the explosive power will have no trouble accelerating on the climb.

The difficulty is purely in the repetition. If everyone in the race assumes that the GB team are the ones who have to chase down the breaks, because they have the main interest in a sprint finish, then I can't see that they have the firepower or the numbers to do it over and over again.
Adrian says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:50 pm

@ChrisO

@RedRanger

has anyone found a course profile? Im shooting from the hip since I have nothing to lose.

VSP PICKS:

I know it extremely well - it's my regular Sunday ride when I'm back in London.

Box Hill is not a hard climb in itself - I can do it maintaining around 17-18km/h and it takes around 7.5 minutes.

There are two tightish corners but also straight sections between. For the pros they would probably stay in the big ring, and it is probably just hard enough that someone who wants to get away can use the bigger gears on the straights and power up. Even a rider like Wiggins or Evans who doesn't have the explosive power will have no trouble accelerating on the climb.

The difficulty is purely in the repetition. If everyone in the race assumes that the GB team are the ones who have to chase down the breaks, because they have the main interest in a sprint finish, then I can't see that they have the firepower or the numbers to do it over and over again.

the course overall in mostly flat. A few ups and downs between London and the hill but nothing that these guys will notice. Box hill is a cat 4 climb of about 125m of ascent with an average gradient of 4-5 percent, although a few steeper sections.

Attacks will comeson each circuit, maybe someone can get away but the peloton will have 40-50km of flat roads back to London to haul in anyone out front to create a bunch sprint.......my amateur assessment of the course anyway.
meursault says:

Jul 25 2012 at 11:55 pm

VSP PICKS:

1. Cavendish
2. Greipel
3. Sagan
4. Goss
5. Boasson Hagen
Nozzle says:

Jul 26 2012 at 12:09 am

VSP PICKS:

1. Sagan
2. Cavendouche
3. Matty Goose
4. Faboo
5. Andre the Giant
Ankush says:

Jul 26 2012 at 12:21 am

I just love writing Lulu's name in full.

I think Cav will take the sprint by a mile, Sagan is too busy mopping up criterium money, that maverick.

VSP PICKS:

1. Cavendish
2. Sagan
3. EBH
4. Gerrans
5. Luis Leon Sanchez
kowala says:

Jul 26 2012 at 12:53 am

I think the final run into London will be fast enough to drop any pure sprinters left after the hill repeats. I'm going with the hard men with thick legs to take this one.

VSP PICKS:

1. Sagan
2. Boasson Hagan
3. Boonen
4. Cancellara
5. Gerrans
Oli says:

Jul 26 2012 at 1:06 am

VSP PICKS:

1. Cavendish
2. Sagan
3. Boonen
4. Henderson
5. Goss