Velominati Super Prestige: Tour de France 2017

Favorites ascending. Photo: Gruber Images.

As many of you know, I write a monthly column for Cyclist Magazine where I answer Dear Abby-esque questions, and the most recent query pertained to whether I consider the Tour the best race of the year, or whether it’s an over-publicized circus. The question made me realize something about myself: I have a weariness around the Tour de France not unlike a romantic whose heart has been broken one too many times.

The fact is, as much as I prefer a race like Paris-Roubaix or the Giro d’Italia to the mid-summer shit show that is the Tour de France, nothing gets my anticipation going quite the way the Tour does, which is undeniably the pinnacle of the season; all the classifications and stages are prestigious enough that racers of all sorts are all arriving at the start in peak form. There is a promise of hard racing from day one, but the first week consists mostly of me worrying about the big favorites crashing out. As soon as we get through that mess, my heart is usually broken on the first day in the mountains, when the favorite takes a decisive lead and the rest of the race is most about stages than the GC.

At least, these are the dreads of a man who lived through the Indurain and Armstrong eras of racing.

Nevertheless, the Tour always manages to seduce me, and this year is no different. Maybe this year, she won’t be such a cruel lover. And, maybe this year, I won’t make horrible picks in the VSP. Just maybe, just maybe. You know the drill; get your picks in by the time the clock goes to zero, and you get some swap options on the rest day. Good luck!
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frank

The founder of Velominati and curator of The Rules, Frank was born in the Dutch colonies of Minnesota. His boundless physical talents are carefully canceled out by his equally boundless enthusiasm for drinking. Coffee, beer, wine, if it’s in a container, he will enjoy it, a lot of it. He currently lives in Seattle. He loves riding in the rain and scheduling visits with the Man with the Hammer just to be reminded of the privilege it is to feel completely depleted. He holds down a technology job the description of which no-one really understands and his interests outside of Cycling and drinking are Cycling and drinking. As devoted aesthete, the only thing more important to him than riding a bike well is looking good doing it. Frank is co-author along with the other Keepers of the Cog of the popular book, The Rules, The Way of the Cycling Disciple and also writes a monthly column for the magazine, Cyclist. He is also currently working on the first follow-up to The Rules, tentatively entitled The Hardmen. Email him directly at rouleur@velominati.com.

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VbyV says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:13 am

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

Note sure that mixing 11% of a single climb with 1% of the total duration of the TdF is a valid comparison. Smacks of a case of there being lies, damn lies and statistics! (Insert random punctuation of choice).

0

Not doing that at all. I am merely pointing out that with final places being decided by a fraction of 1% of total ride time neutralizing the toughest climb for a significant time would benefit the leader.

Put another way, how much time could be gained or lost on a 10.3% gradient in a kilometer? How much if that kilometer was 14-15% (which parts of the climb are).

0

So if the other contenders think that they should actually stop and wait, thereby neutralising the neutralisation?

0

Sorry if it wasn’t clear. The other riders waiting IS the neutralization.

0

It was absolutely clear. My point is that your logic applies if the other riders ride some way up the road slowly. If they actually stop, stationary, static, not moving along with whoever then the logic no longer applies.

0

Imagine another sport, like hockey (if that's possible). If you are winning, and suddenly you say "Let's just sit here for 3 minutes", that's 3 minutes closer to the win where the other team can't score. Now imagine you neutralized 3 very important minutes of the game, for example the LAST 3.
Rick says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:16 am

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

Note sure that mixing 11% of a single climb with 1% of the total duration of the TdF is a valid comparison. Smacks of a case of there being lies, damn lies and statistics! (Insert random punctuation of choice).

0

Not doing that at all. I am merely pointing out that with final places being decided by a fraction of 1% of total ride time neutralizing the toughest climb for a significant time would benefit the leader.

Put another way, how much time could be gained or lost on a 10.3% gradient in a kilometer? How much if that kilometer was 14-15% (which parts of the climb are).

0

So if the other contenders think that they should actually stop and wait, thereby neutralising the neutralisation?

0

Sorry if it wasn’t clear. The other riders waiting IS the neutralization.

0

It was absolutely clear. My point is that your logic applies if the other riders ride some way up the road slowly. If they actually stop, stationary, static, not moving along with whoever then the logic no longer applies.

0

I didn't see anyone actually stop. However, if they did it would impact the race in other ways. It is a fallacy to believe events would play out exactly as they did if the variables change.

I still stand by my original point that neutralizing part of a steep climb generally benefits the leader.
Teocalli says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:17 am

@VbyV

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

@Teocalli

@Rick

Note sure that mixing 11% of a single climb with 1% of the total duration of the TdF is a valid comparison. Smacks of a case of there being lies, damn lies and statistics! (Insert random punctuation of choice).

0

Not doing that at all. I am merely pointing out that with final places being decided by a fraction of 1% of total ride time neutralizing the toughest climb for a significant time would benefit the leader.

Put another way, how much time could be gained or lost on a 10.3% gradient in a kilometer? How much if that kilometer was 14-15% (which parts of the climb are).

0

So if the other contenders think that they should actually stop and wait, thereby neutralising the neutralisation?

0

Sorry if it wasn’t clear. The other riders waiting IS the neutralization.

0

It was absolutely clear. My point is that your logic applies if the other riders ride some way up the road slowly. If they actually stop, stationary, static, not moving along with whoever then the logic no longer applies.

0

Imagine another sport, like hockey (if that’s possible). If you are winning, and suddenly you say “Let’s just sit here for 3 minutes”, that’s 3 minutes closer to the win where the other team can’t score. Now imagine you neutralized 3 very important minutes of the game, for example the LAST 3.

0

I'm talking more like Ice Hockey or American Football where it the reverse "Timeout, my gears are nackered". So everyone stops there and then on the road and there are still 3 mins left in the game.
MangoDave says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:23 am

@RobSandy

@wiscot

@VbyV

Anybody else find it strange that Froome’s tiny mechanical (not puncture) issues always seem to happen right at a critical point of a major climb? If Aru had crashed when Froome shouldered him, would Froome have been ejected from the Tour like Sagan?

0

Just to be devil’s advocate here, a crash is a crash, a puncture is a puncture. Neither can be predicted or avoided – if they could be, they wouldn’t happen. But a mechanical? Some might argue that a well set-up bike should function fine barring a situation such as a rear mech getting dinged in a crash (like what happened to Duran Duran) As bikes get more and more technologically advanced, and therefore more susceptible to malfunction, at what point (as I said barring a Uran situ) does a mechanical malfunction qualify a rider to call or expect a ceasefire? Surely it behooves a team to send out their riders on the most reliable equipment just as they send them out properly nourished and rested. Would it be acceptable for a rider to declare “I didn’t sleep last night” or I’ve got the shits this morning, so if you’d all take it easy until I feel better, I’d appreciate it.”

As I say, just being the devil’s advocate here, but as I’ve said before, you can’t run a race along the lines of “if everyone is feeling top-notch, let’s race, otherwise, let’s take it easy.”

0

I think there was the possibility of an interesting conundrum arising yesterday. I find it a bit fishy that Aru attacked as Froome put his hand up. As Simon Yates said ‘bullshit’. I bit of a ceasefire in that sort of race while someone changes a bit is reasonable, I think. Didn’t make it easier for Froome as he had to ride back up to the favourites knowing full well someone would hit it as soon as he made contact.

However, when Bardet was out the front, the chasing group contained Uran who was having his own mechanical. Would the group riding away from Uran to catch Bardet be considered unsporting, when the alternative would be to let Bardet escape, taking the stage win and potentially moving up on GC?

0

I also question Aru's move... However, do we really know Froome had a mechanical? If he did, I (and Aru) assume he would have started running again. Maybe Aru thought Froome was just calling for a new bidon? //Devil's advocate, ala wiscot//
wiscot says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:35 am

Crazy times, crazy race. I'm hoping Dan Martin will recover today and show that he has podium form. He has nothing to lose at this point but to attack. Maybe he and Aru can go for it? Quintana could surprise and Bertie has nothing to lose but his pride in what looks like he last Tour. The Fat Lady is still in her dressing room and is just getting warmed up!
Rick says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:38 am

@wiscot

Crazy times, crazy race. I’m hoping Dan Martin will recover today and show that he has podium form. He has nothing to lose at this point but to attack. Maybe he and Aru can go for it? Quintana could surprise and Bertie has nothing to lose but his pride in what looks like he last Tour. The Fat Lady is still in her dressing room and is just getting warmed up!

0

I think Danny Boy has shown that he has podium stuff. If not for yesterday's crash he would presumably be sitting in a podium position. Of all of the climbers on the Cat, I though he looked the best.
dancollins says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:46 am

Frank: Some of us Porte fans are hoping for rest day swaps??
VbyV says:

Jul 10 2017 at 10:47 am

There are tactical uses of the time-out as well. If your opponent has momentum, you call time-out to break their rhythm. Shitty, but smart tactically. Happens all the time in tennis, football (both kinds), etc.
Buck Rogers says:

Jul 10 2017 at 11:40 am

@wiscot

Crazy times, crazy race. I’m hoping Dan Martin will recover today and show that he has podium form. He has nothing to lose at this point but to attack. Maybe he and Aru can go for it? Quintana could surprise and Bertie has nothing to lose but his pride in what looks like he last Tour. The Fat Lady is still in her dressing room and is just getting warmed up!

0

So hoping that Danny Boy makes back his 1:15 loss. He would be in 3rd if he finished with the lead group and not with Quintana's group. Really warmed to Martin this year. He's probably my most liked rider right now.
wiscot says:

Jul 10 2017 at 12:43 pm

@Buck Rogers

@wiscot

Crazy times, crazy race. I’m hoping Dan Martin will recover today and show that he has podium form. He has nothing to lose at this point but to attack. Maybe he and Aru can go for it? Quintana could surprise and Bertie has nothing to lose but his pride in what looks like he last Tour. The Fat Lady is still in her dressing room and is just getting warmed up!

0

So hoping that Danny Boy makes back his 1:15 loss. He would be in 3rd if he finished with the lead group and not with Quintana’s group. Really warmed to Martin this year. He’s probably my most liked rider right now.

0

And I think Dan M is also smart enough to know that with Froome and Sky's depth and ability, waiting for them to have an off day is not a reasonable strategy. Sure Quintana, Aru, Bertie and even Bardet would be willing accomplices in an adventure?