Velominati Super Prestige: Tour de France 2017
As many of you know, I write a monthly column for Cyclist Magazine where I answer Dear Abby-esque questions, and the most recent query pertained to whether I consider the Tour the best race of the year, or whether it’s an over-publicized circus. The question made me realize something about myself: I have a weariness around the Tour de France not unlike a romantic whose heart has been broken one too many times.
The fact is, as much as I prefer a race like Paris-Roubaix or the Giro d’Italia to the mid-summer shit show that is the Tour de France, nothing gets my anticipation going quite the way the Tour does, which is undeniably the pinnacle of the season; all the classifications and stages are prestigious enough that racers of all sorts are all arriving at the start in peak form. There is a promise of hard racing from day one, but the first week consists mostly of me worrying about the big favorites crashing out. As soon as we get through that mess, my heart is usually broken on the first day in the mountains, when the favorite takes a decisive lead and the rest of the race is most about stages than the GC.
At least, these are the dreads of a man who lived through the Indurain and Armstrong eras of racing.
Nevertheless, the Tour always manages to seduce me, and this year is no different. Maybe this year, she won’t be such a cruel lover. And, maybe this year, I won’t make horrible picks in the VSP. Just maybe, just maybe. You know the drill; get your picks in by the time the clock goes to zero, and you get some swap options on the rest day. Good luck!
[vsp_results id=”104413″/]
@Rick
Note sure that mixing 11% of a single climb with 1% of the total duration of the TdF is a valid comparison. Smacks of a case of there being lies, damn lies and statistics! (Insert random punctuation of choice).
@Rick
So then why didn’t Froome just sit on Aru’s wheel?
@Buck Rogers
Wouldn’t have anything to do with you sitting on a Royal Flush would it?
@VbyV
Because save Aru, they were all going for the stage win.
@Rick
Remember when Froome had a “stone” in his brake when Nibali attacked him? So that’s three times when he neutralized a critical climb for some supposed “Mechanical”.
@VbyV
You may (or may not) have noticed that it was Froome that encouraged everyone to rotate to set up the chase.
@VbyV
What makes me think you are fundamentally anti Froome vs enjoying the TdF with an open mind?
@Teocalli
So then why did Aru and his teammate Fuglsang help? They were 50% of the chase group since Barguil was sitting on.
@VbyV
For me the tactics would be for Fuglsang to attack the group, Aru forces Froome to chase, then once Froome catches Fuglsang, Aru attacks and gets away for the stage win.
@VbyV
You missed my sarcasm in reposting part of the previous post. How the heck would I know what they were thinking beyond all wanting the stage win or when one decided they wanted it the others could not afford to lose time. If it was 100% predictable and logical there would not be much point in watching?
@Teocalli
I don’t mind if Froome wins. I just don’t get the tactics of Astana at the finish. Also I find it boring watching the Sky train crush everyone, so anything that makes for more competition is a good thing in my mind.
@Teocalli
This is smart tactics by Froome. He had the most to lose letting Bardet get the stage and time on him. At least in my mind. That’s why I was so confused that Astana didn’t come up with a better plan to take some time, especially as they had 2 riders in the small group.
@VbyV
For me the tactics would be for Fuglsang to attack the group, Aru forces Froome to chase, then once Froome catches Fuglsang, Aru attacks and gets away for the stage win.
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I would admit that Movistar tactics seem to be a bit haphazard over the years. Queue Valverde’s “support” for Quintana (not just this TdF). Though with Fulgsang’s deficit not sure Froome would necessarily feel the need to cover him. I think Froome just saw the chance of the stage for himself if he could get the group chasing.
@Teocalli
Not doing that at all. I am merely pointing out that with final places being decided by a fraction of 1% of total ride time neutralizing the toughest climb for a significant time would benefit the leader.
Put another way, how much time could be gained or lost on a 10.3% gradient in a kilometer? How much if that kilometer was 14-15% (which parts of the climb are).
@Rick
So if the other contenders think that they should actually stop and wait, thereby neutralising the neutralisation?
@VbyV
This is situational. Your initial question was “Why didn’t everyone sit on Froome’s wheel?” The answer is two fold: Many were looking for the stage win and Froome had no incentive to chase alone.
My comment regarding sitting on Aru’s wheel was offered in support of my stance that Froome had no incentive to pull the entire group along. When everyone was working together Froome took his pulls. His incentive was to get a few seconds in time bonuses and increase his lead, which he achieved. That is a significantly differnt situation than if the other riders all sucked his wheel.
One thing Froome has shown is that he is a real racer. Phil said yesterday’s stage reminded him of 1989 when LeMond, Fignon, along with the other leading contenders sprinted for the line. Kudos to the bunch of them.
@Teocalli
Sorry if it wasn’t clear. The other riders waiting IS the neutralization.
@Rick
It was absolutely clear. My point is that your logic applies if the other riders ride some way up the road slowly. If they actually stop, stationary, static, not moving along with whoever then the logic no longer applies.
@Teocalli
Fuglsang is only 1:37 down in 5th place. But I see your point.
@Teocalli
This conversation is excellent. I love trying to figure out the tactics of the races. As we have all heard before, the strongest guy wins the Tour, but tactics can at least make it interesting!
@Teocalli
Imagine another sport, like hockey (if that’s possible). If you are winning, and suddenly you say “Let’s just sit here for 3 minutes”, that’s 3 minutes closer to the win where the other team can’t score. Now imagine you neutralized 3 very important minutes of the game, for example the LAST 3.
@Teocalli
I didn’t see anyone actually stop. However, if they did it would impact the race in other ways. It is a fallacy to believe events would play out exactly as they did if the variables change.
I still stand by my original point that neutralizing part of a steep climb generally benefits the leader.
@VbyV
I’m talking more like Ice Hockey or American Football where it the reverse “Timeout, my gears are nackered”. So everyone stops there and then on the road and there are still 3 mins left in the game.
@RobSandy
I also question Aru’s move… However, do we really know Froome had a mechanical? If he did, I (and Aru) assume he would have started running again. Maybe Aru thought Froome was just calling for a new bidon? //Devil’s advocate, ala wiscot//
Crazy times, crazy race. I’m hoping Dan Martin will recover today and show that he has podium form. He has nothing to lose at this point but to attack. Maybe he and Aru can go for it? Quintana could surprise and Bertie has nothing to lose but his pride in what looks like he last Tour. The Fat Lady is still in her dressing room and is just getting warmed up!
@wiscot
I think Danny Boy has shown that he has podium stuff. If not for yesterday’s crash he would presumably be sitting in a podium position. Of all of the climbers on the Cat, I though he looked the best.
Frank: Some of us Porte fans are hoping for rest day swaps??
There are tactical uses of the time-out as well. If your opponent has momentum, you call time-out to break their rhythm. Shitty, but smart tactically. Happens all the time in tennis, football (both kinds), etc.
@wiscot
So hoping that Danny Boy makes back his 1:15 loss. He would be in 3rd if he finished with the lead group and not with Quintana’s group. Really warmed to Martin this year. He’s probably my most liked rider right now.
@Buck Rogers
And I think Dan M is also smart enough to know that with Froome and Sky’s depth and ability, waiting for them to have an off day is not a reasonable strategy. Sure Quintana, Aru, Bertie and even Bardet would be willing accomplices in an adventure?
@wiscot
Also, Uran is also likely to be hungry like a wolf to gain time. The interview with Vaughters was interesting. He said that Riggo was putting up huge power numbers coming into the Tour. He also said that surprise is a good weapon. Uran unlikely to surprise again but according to Vuaghters it is no fluke that Rigoberto is currently less than a minute back.
@dancollins
Doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Fingers crossed for second rest day swaps, I guess.
@stooge
Do we just post our swaps and hope they get updated?
‘lil shout out for The Hardmen in stage 9’s Backstage Pass
@Mikael Liddy
Great inclusion – that Paris-Roubaix win was the epitome of Hard (not to mention the other decade and a half of bossing it around the globe).
@Canucklehead
Picks won’t be recorded anywhere whilst modification is closed, and nobody is going to do it manually. It looks like the best we can hope for is for 2nd rest day swaps to be open when the time comes.
Maybe someone could get the word the Keepers…
@Rick
The neutralisation probably also benefited anyone in that group who was blowing at the time, and on form that wasn’t Froome.
@Rick
My reading of the situation was Froome said something to Aru along the lines if ‘if Bardet stays away that’s your 2nd place gone’.
But it would have been smarter by Astana to get Fuglsang to join in the rotation and have Aru sitting at the back to jump as soon as they caught Bardet.
Froome may also have said that he wasn’t worried about Bardet, hinted that he was happy to let him go.
It’s chess played at high speed….
@stooge
You could just not worry about it. Rest Day Swaps wont win you the TDF or the VSP.
Offredo is a maniac but I’m liking it! Maybe the only thing crazier than getting in a 2 man break with the Panzerwagon is with a neo pro…
@RobSandy
Don’t know what gave you the impression that I am worried. Mainly I was answering a question. My point about alerting the powers that be is that this is a trend, and it is worth halting. Somebody that could otherwise podium might not because if it. You don’t change the rules halfway into a game.
You could just stop worrying about what other people might be worried about.
So…no rest day swaps for VSP?
@stooge
Frank is aware, he posted higher up on the thread. Whenever I think the VSP should be better run I remind myself that the whole site is maintained by guys who have lots of other demands on their time and do it more or less from the love of it.
I do worry. I worry about your worries. I worry your worries will worry other worriers.
Don’t worry, be happy.
@RobSandy
Wait…so what you’re saying is that Frank’s life does not involve constant service to us and our pursuit of eternal glory via the VSP? :)
In all seriousness, it isn’t a big deal- I just worried I Delgadoed it (again) or missed the window. Scanning the thread, I must have missed Frank’s post.
Not worried. Happy. (Except for the whole Sagan thing- still unhappy about that.)
@RobSandy
I get that the site is run by (awesome) guys that do it for the love of it. In fact, I said pretty much the same things when a bunch of folks were in tears about it during the Giro. Alert doesn’t mean reprimand. You could have just said Frank has already posted on it..
Lol. Again, I’m not worried. But, you go ahead and worry your little head. It’s okay, some of my friends are SJWs – I know it can be tough on those guys to not stick their noses in, so I don’t worry about it.
Greg LeMan chimes in on the Aru attack:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cycling-france-lemond-idUSKBN19U0XK
@BacklashJack
Good point about “just putting his hand up”.
“.. What I didn’t understand is that everyone else followed and then stopped,” . That’s the most obvious part, isn’t it? They couldn’t just let him ride away.
@stooge
I don’t 100% disagree. I certainly think if the attack was already on and anyone had a mechanical at the back of the group, tough shit.
However, Aru attacked when Froome was asking for a bike change, deliberately. I still think that’s bad form.
The GC favourites should have just let Aru ride away a bit then chased him down as a group once Froome was back with them.
@RobSandy
How are they to know that’s what the hand is about? Could just be that he’s going hunger flat/thirsty & needs topping up from the car, in which case it’s the perfect time to attack. Not like Richie was going to take an illegal feed for him this year…
@RobSandy
I don’t know what Aru was thinking. LeMond thinks he didn’t mean to attack on a mechanical. Aru says he didn’t (but what Aru and Froome say can be taken with a grain of salt – they’re going to be diplomatic. It looked bad.
The GC favourites had no way of knowing how long it would be. They couldn’t risk Aru summiting long before them. Going after and catching him, but refusing to keep the pace, seemed pretty sensible. Anyway, same result, more or less.