This is an exciting time of year. The Giro is in the books, the Tour is firmly in everyone’s sights, and those of us with the vaguest idea of how the big race will unfold are prognosticating the loudest as we use races that are proven to reveal fuck-all about what will happen at the Tour to predict what will happen at the Tour.
With the Dauphiné underway we look to the start of the Tour de Suisse to peer deeper into the murk to see who is riding well. As far as I’m concerned, I might as well lay out all the rider’s names in a random pattern and blow snot-rockets at the floor to make my picks this year because I honestly haven’t the foggiest idea who will take it; the biggest race of the year is spinning up to be the biggest enigma of the year.
All this babbling serves to demonstrate another important point, and the reason why the Dauphiné wasn’t in the VSP: these stage races are little more than preparation races for the big names, and a chance for the smaller one’s to take center stage. So why did the Tour de Suisse get a VSP while the Dauphiné didn’t? For starters, the latter feels less like a dress rehearsal for the Tour, but mostly its because there is a mountain pass that has cobbles all the way up it in Switzerland (though I’m not sure if they’re riding it this year). How cool is that? I can get on board with any country who values labor costs little enough to pave an entire mountain road one cobble at a time. Yes, we’re that scientific here in the Velominati Boardroom.
When this race is over, we’ll have even less of a clue as to who will win in July (well, everyone except @Marcus, who needs neither evidence nor results in order to be sure Cuddles will win) and we’ll be able to distract ourselves with the various National Championships which will take place in the week leading up the Tour’s start and guessing wether Bruyneel has the nerve to cut either or both Schlecks from his Tour team.
So, dust off your monkey’s bones and 12-sided die, time to make your predictions for the 2012 Tour de Suisse. Check the Tour de Suisse site for the latest route and roster info and remember that since this is a stage race, (not a Grand Tour), points on offer are 10 for first place, 8 for second, 7 for third, 5 for fourth, and 3 for fifth – all based on the final General Classification; plus two bonus points per rider in the top five regardless of the rider’s placing. Get your picks in by the time the countdown clock goes to zero, and pray for an intervention. Make sure you check the mappings of your picks before the race ends so you get the points you deserve, and use the dispute mechanism to alert us of any issues. Note that the dispute mechanism is the official means by which to raise concerns about your picks; questions about your mappings or disputes raised in the posts will be largely ignored.
Good luck.
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@sthilzy
We're still British - its English that we aren't.
@RedRanger
Bloody hell! And here I was thinking he was the next great French rider...
@Dr C
He was a lunatic on Stage 3 of last year's TdS! I really thought Cunego was gonna win it. Sagan's descent scared the crap out of me!
good to finally realize after 2 stages horner didn't start. coulda been worse, coulda put schleck in my list... oh yeah isnt he like in second now.
Well, at least the Schlecks stopped the bleeding a bit with that ride today. At least we know they aren't completely dead.
@frank
OH REALLY!
didn't my rider come in second on the stage, and currently sits in second overall? Don't want to tell you how to suck eggs, but SUCK EGGS! How's that for caps.
Where's the Schleck bashing now? That appears to have shut up the internet experts, just wait till he gets Andy back on his team! Then you're all fucked.
I predict my fat headed crowing will continue till the TT. That'll shut me up.
@minion
At first glance, this read "my fat head crowning" -- like birth. ??
I've started doing a bit of analysis of prior VSP events but it takes a long time to get it together so as the TdS is currently on I thought I would throw some of it out there.
If the Velominati as a collective were to have entered a VSP top 5 it would be:
Gesink 502 points
Cunego 450 points
Kreuziger 424 points
Leipheimer 402 points
Valverde 385 points
(This is based on a scale of 5 points for each first place pick, 4 for each second etc)
So basically if that looks like your VSP then don't hold off buying your own workshop apron because based on previous form we are unlikely to get more than 2 of the top 5 right.
In terms of positions, Gesink followed by Cunego was the most popular pick for first and second positions.
Interstingly Valverde was a clear top pick for third position, and Leipheimer a clear top pick for fourth. Leipheimer also was top pick for fifth.
Kreuziger didn't top any position but was mostly third pick in all positions. That could be a good sign - I haven't looked at enough previous VSPs to be sure of that but J-Rod was similar in the Giro.
After our top 5 there is a big gap to Sagan (225), Danielson (160), Cancellara (149) and Fuglsang (135). Schleck elder is a mere 10th with 75, so it could be his best chance of winning something.
What does it all mean - I don't know, I need to look at more of the other races to see if there are any patterns.
Apart from the Giro, so far I've done Paris Nice where we picked the winner (Wiggins) and had Valverde second (he came third) but apart from that were pretty appalling.
Only one other of our top 10 in P-N made it (TVG picked 7th, came 5th). The rest of the top 10 were barely on our radar, indeed four of them were picked by nobody and one by only one person.
@Ron
even a dead cat bounces once
Wow, how darn good is Sagan?! He can win in all types of conditions, all types of finishes. It's almost like no one has told him he's such and such type of rider so he just rides his damn bike and tries to win each time he lines up. Incredible. I also loved how he kept on pedaling after the line today. Yeah, just won, but not really tired, going to get a few more kms in...
And Teena Turner's "Simply the Best" for the podium? The Italians were playing ZZ Top and Van Halen for three straight weeks. Have the 80s never stopped in Europe? Weird.